Burnley v Watford - Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1
Burnley were blown away by Leicester last week and were perhaps lucky to only lose 3-0. However, they retain a great defensive record at home and Watford fans shouldn’t expect this game to be as high-scoring as their recent matches. There have been at least three goals in eight of the Hornets’ last 10 and at least four goals in seven of these games, but Burnley will seek to keep the game as tight as possible where other teams might show more offensive ambition.
Watford will be buzzing after big wins against both West Ham and Man Utd. They looked a little tired at the end against Mourinho’s side but deserved their victory. Walter Mazzarri won the tactical battle, but Man Utd are not playing particularly well at the moment and the Hornets will lose some attacking impetus in the wide areas after Daryl Janmaat picked up a shoulder injury.
Watford have been made slight favourites for this game, but five of the last six matches between these two teams have finished level whilst both teams have scored in 13 of their last 15 encounters. We think that with Burnley’s home advantage and their somewhat negative game plan the value lies in backing the draw at 3.3.
Burnley will sit deep which should force Watford to use the physicality of Deeney and Ighalo to knock down balls for midfield runners. With four goals already this season and a starting position higher up the pitch, Etienne Capoue looks a good shout to be first goalscorer at 15.0.