@BetWithStats1 preview the opening round of PL fixtures using their unique betting model
Arsenal v Leicester, Friday 19.45
The Foxes travel to The Emirates, hoping to start the season in a different fashion to last season. Unfortunately for them, we rate Arsenal's home defending the second-strongest in the league. To add to this, Leicester's away form last season was largely lacklustre, and although Shakespeare's arrival did change their fortunes slightly for the better, we expect them to have few sights at goal. The model predicts a 52% chance that a BTTS No bet will succeed, so make sure you get your hands on odds as long as 13/10.
Crystal Palace v Huddersfield, Saturday 15.00
Unfortunately for Huddersfield fans, we rate their chances this season as fairly bleak. Away from home, they have both the worst attack and defence in the league. However, Crystal Palace did struggle at Selhurst Park last season, so their chance of winning isn't sky-high - it lies at 70%. We are hoping however that Frank de Boer can change that and get his side off to a winning start, and 5/6 seems a great price for them to do so.
Everton v Stoke, Saturday 15.00
Everton have recruited well this summer, and they will look to build on their great form at Goodison Park from last season. Although they finished seventh last season, we rate their home defending as the fourth-best in the league. On the other hand, Stoke have had a frustrating window, and the model has used the numbers from last season to predict a 59% chance of at least one goalkeeper keeping a clean sheet. At Evens, this seems too good to miss.
Southampton v Swansea, Saturday 15.00
Saved by Paul Clement in the second half of last season, Swansea will be looking to maintain their momentum into the new 17/18 season. With Sigurdsson having all but departed, Swansea may struggle for creativity in the final third, but loanee Tammy Abraham will certainly give them more options up front. Southampton are a good side, however they staggeringly have the second-worst home attacking rating. Despite Southampton being seen as the favourites, our model gives us a 59% chance of them failing to win.
West Brom v Bournemouth, Saturday 15.00
It's almost a certainty these days that Tony Pulis will keep his side up, and there are good reasons why. One of them is their consistent home form - consistently putting goals past low sides. Eddie Howe's side had a decent away record last season, and will be hoping Josh King can rediscover some of the form he showed during parts of last season. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals in this match, making 5/4 a very good deal.
Newcastle v Tottenham, Sunday 13.30
Tottenham's lack of transfer business this summer has raised some eyebrows, but it begs the question as to where they could realistically improve their squad. After two top-three finishes in a row, it's hard to say they won't have another strong season. The change of stadium will be a challenge considering their great form at White Hart Lane. We can't look past them at a price of 3/4, with a 74% chance of winning, they have to be tipped to beat newly-promoted Newcastle.
Man United v West Ham, Sunday 16.00
Man United's form at Old Trafford can be summarised well by their ratings in our model. They have the third-best home defending as opposed to the thirteenth-best home attacking. This is reflected in the 63% chance of under 2.5 goals being scored in the game against West Ham - making 13/10 a great price.