Fiorentina v AC Milan – Sunday 19:45, BT Sport 2
Following an impressive win against Roma last weekend, Fiorentina will be disappointed that they were only able to come away with a point from Udinese on Wednesday night. At home they’re defensively solid, conceding just 16 times since the start of last season which includes two clean sheets this term. They’ve only lost three of these 21 games and if you disregard games against last season’s top four then their record reads W11-D4-L1 with eight of the victories coming to nil.
AC Milan looked to have regained some confidence following two wins without conceding after shipping seven in their first three outings. However, you’d have to go all the way back to the 2013/14 campaign for the last time they won back-to-back away games, as they’ve been incredibly inconsistent on the road.
When travelling to top-six sides Milan’s record reads a miserable W0-D3-L9 in the past two seasons as they’ve netted just five times. Such a shocking record makes a Fiorentina win to nil a viable option, but with Carlos Bacca back in the starting line-up and Mbaye Niang playing well AC look a threat going forward, so we prefer not to take the risk and think there is plenty of value in just the home win as we expect Fiorentina to outgun their visitors, even if they do get on the scoresheet.