Portugal v Latvia – Sunday 19:45, ITV4

Having lost just once since their Euro triumph in July, Portugal sit second in Group B, and will expect to run rampant at home against a Latvia side that has won only one of its last 10 competitive fixtures on the road. Portugal have been clinical in recent matches against similarly low-ranking nations and have put six past both sides they’ve faced since defeat on the road against Switzerland.

Portugal have scored at least two in all previous contests against Latvia, who have scored only once (against minnows Andorra) in their qualifying campaign so far and who will be without striker Valerijs Šabala. Moreover, Portugal have kept clean sheets in five of their last six fixtures against teams ranked at least fifty places below them in our rankings (we have Latvia 120th in the World), so it is hard to see Latvia breaking through a composed Portugal back-line.

With Portuguese victory all but assured, eyes must turn to the margin of victory. Given that Portugal have scored 17 goals in four fixtures since the end of Euro 2016, we’re backing them to cover the -3 handicap. For a longer shot, we like right-back Joao Cancelo to score anytime at 4.8. While he’s not found the net for Valencia this season, he has scored in all three of his games for the national team so far, and will look to push up the pitch after spending time at right wing in recent domestic fixtures.

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Portugal -3 handicap - 1pt @ 2.55