Channel 4 Racing presenter Nick Luck picks out his best bets on Newmarket's July Course.
The first race (2.40), which is on More4 today, could well go the way of Clear Water. I was impressed with Saeed bin Suroor’s filly on the Rowley Mile where she strode four and a half lengths clear of a reasonable field in a maiden race. Although the time wasn’t particularly special, she left a decent impression on me and she doesn’t look badly handicapped off 90. If I was looking to back one at a bigger price then I would side with Henry Candy’s Mediciman down at the bottom of the weights, but the Godolphin filly can hopefully get us off to a winning start.
The seven-furlong handicap at 3.10 is typically trappy but James Fanshawe has his horses in reasonable form and although it’s a big ask for Permission to win such a warm handicap on just her second start, I was as impressed as the handicapper by her debut victory. The daughter of Authorized must face quicker ground today although there is a bit of rain around in Newmarket this morning, which should take the sting out of the ground, which would aid her cause further. Daniel Muscutt takes a further 3lb off her back and in a competitive handicap that could prove crucial. She’ll have to be almost Listed class to win this so early in her career but I think she showed sufficient quality on debut to think that she could be quite a smart filly.
Aljuljalah can a much bigger race than the prices suggest because she didn’t get her ground at Ascot and that run can easily be excused. Roger Varian’s filly had chased home the classy Nemoralia at York on her previous start and a return to that sort of form would put her firmly in the mix here.
The Cherry Hinton Stakes (3.45) Blexley is making the market here but I am inclined to side with Nasimi who represents the in-form team of Charlie Appleby and James Doyle. She encounters slightly different conditions to when she impressively accounted for today’s rival Nations Alexander on her debut, but she showed a sharp turn of foot on that occasion and, being by Shamardal and out of a Bernardini mare, her pedigree suggests she should be equally effective on this better ground.
There was nothing not to like about Bletchley’s run at Ascot but she had quite a hard race that day and although she would probably win if backing that form up, her price is tight enough.
The feature event of the day, the Group One Falmouth Stakes (4.15), doesn’t have a great betting shape to it thanks the defection of Euro Charline, who has now been retired, so it’s a case of choosing between going with the obvious or being brave, and I’m inclined to take the latter route and side with Amazing Maria.
Usherette is on a roll now and is clearly going to take some stopping but Amazing Maria hit full stride at this stage last season, winning this race by a length before following up in the Group One Prix Rothschild. I thought there was quite a lot of promise in her run at Ascot where she was trapped on the wing but stayed on quite stoutly and she showed enough there to make me think she has a big performance in her this afternoon.