Serena Williams struggled again against Bethanie Mattek-Sands and her match with Madison Keys could define this tournament and possibly the future of women's tennis. Keys has been superb this week and her first win over Agnieszka Radwanska in five attempts shows she is becoming a more rounded player. She pushed Williams hard in the Australian Open semis this year despite a thigh problem and she can gain revenge here with the world number one below par this week. We've missed the 5/1 but 4/1 is still fair and Keys to win the first set at 3/1 is huge. Keys +4.5 on the games handicap at 23/20 is also worth playing. The 20-year-old will win Slams and the flame could be passed this evening. I've also played Keys outright at 33/1 each-way.
Anett Kontaveit has done incredibly well to reach the last 16 but I fear she will toil against the power of Venus Williams who put out Belinda Bencic in round three. I expect the elder Williams to cover the -5.5 games handicap and 11/10 looks big to my eyes.
Benoit Paire has already achieved his best performance in a Grand Slam thanks to wins over Kei Nishikori and Tommy Robredo. He faces fellow Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the last 16 and I just think the odds should be a bit closer than they are. Both men have powerful games and plenty of flair and there is a danger Tsonga could be a bit underdone having cruised through thus far. I'm happy to back Paire to win at 11/4 and see what happens in what should be an entertaining match.
Roberto Bautista-Agut looked set for defeat before David Goffin was struck down by the heat on Thursday and he faces a tough night against world number one Novak Djokovic. The Serb has started quickly against Bautista-Agut in their previous two meetings and, with most odds available being on the prohibitive side, I will play Djokovic to win the first set 6-0 at 25/1 and 6-1 at 7/1.