Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team Odds: Giannis Favored to Get Traded to New York Knicks Amid Rumors
The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade saga is heating up as the Milwaukee Bucks continue to struggle in the 2025-26 season. Now, the Greek Freak is reportedly in discussions with the front office about a potential move, and the New York Knicks are an early favorite. Can the two sides make a blockbuster deal before the trade deadline? Peter Alexis analyzes the early Kalshi odds in the Giannis trade markets.
Peter Alexis - December 3, 2025, 7:30 PM EST
5 Minute ReadGiannis Antetokounmpo Next Team Odds: Giannis Favored to Get Traded to New York Knicks Amid Rumors
The Giannis trade saga, which briefly ignited over the summer, has officially reopened. Back in July and August, the New York Knicks were deep in discussions with Milwaukee, reportedly floating blockbuster packages that included Karl Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and multiple first round picks in hopes of prying the former MVP out of Wisconsin. Talks stalled, the Bucks stood firm, and Giannis appeared ready to recommit to the franchise he won a championship with. But behind closed doors, frustration was brewing.
Now, on December 3, those embers have turned to flames. Giannis and his agent are back in dialogue with Milwaukee’s front office about the possibility of a trade, something that has immediately rippled through the league and betting markets. The Bucks are sitting at 9-13 and stuck in 11th place, far from contention and even farther from Giannis’ expectations. Meanwhile, the Knicks are thriving in second place and have never stopped positioning themselves as the premier landing spot should the relationship between Giannis and Milwaukee deteriorate.
With a little over two months before the February 6 trade deadline, Kalshi has released its first batch of odds for Giannis’ next team. The Knicks lead the board at 45%, followed by “Bucks/retire” at 25%, and then a collection of longshot suitors: Spurs at 8%, Hawks at 7%, Lakers at 5%, Heat at 4%, and Warriors at 4%. It’s a fresh, low volume market, but it perfectly mirrors the tone around the league. New York is in pole position, Milwaukee’s grip is slipping, and everyone else is waiting for the door to open.
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Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team Odds
Team | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
New York Knicks | 45% |
Stay with Milwaukee Bucks/Retire | 25% |
San Antonio Spurs | 8% |
Atlanta Hawks | 7% |
Los Angeles Lakers | 5% |
Miami Heat | 4% |
Golden State Warriors | 4% |
Giannis Antetokounmpo Next Team Odds Breakdown
New York Knicks: 45%
The Knicks have been laying the groundwork for a superstar trade for more than a year, and Giannis is the dream scenario they built toward. They have surplus draft capital, young talent in rotation ready roles, and appealing salaries that can be stacked to match the contract requirements. The reported summer package of Towns, Anunoby, and picks showed just how aggressive they were willing to get, and their stance has not softened. If anything, New York’s 16-7 start has strengthened their willingness to push all-in for a player who could elevate them into immediate title contention.
More importantly, Giannis has long been intrigued by joining the Knicks, both from a branding perspective and from a competitive angle. New York now has structure, depth, and momentum. Add in the fact that he would be joining a top-two seed while leaving a struggling Bucks team, and the timing fits perfectly. The market has reflected this all day, with the Knicks trading as the favorite from the moment odds opened and gaining steam as reports surfaced that discussions between Giannis’ camp and Milwaukee have restarted. The path is clearer than ever, and for now, they are the team to beat.
Stay with Bucks: 25%
The Bucks entered Wednesday as co-favorites at 41%, but that number has plummeted to 25% by the evening, reflecting rising pessimism that they can retain Giannis. The core issue is competitive trajectory. Milwaukee is 9-13 with no signs of a turnaround. The roster appears mismatched, age is catching up to the supporting cast, and the Eastern Conference has passed them by. Giannis is still only 30, still in his prime, and has spoken openly about chasing championships rather than loyalty for loyalty’s sake. That mindset alone places pressure on Milwaukee to either rapidly upgrade or pivot toward a rebuild.
Still, the Bucks have one major advantage: they can offer him the most money and the clearest path to honoring his original desire to stay in one city for his career. There is also the possibility that the team stabilizes in the next few weeks, climbs back above .500, and shifts the narrative. But the odds show a market that no longer buys that outcome. Milwaukee is no longer viewed as the default option. They are now the second most likely outcome, but one moving in the wrong direction.
Spurs, Lakers, or Warriors (8% or Less)
The Spurs and Hawks are the most logical longshots. San Antonio has the type of young core and draft pick cache that could interest Milwaukee, and the idea of pairing Giannis with Victor Wembanyama is the kind of franchise altering swing that Spurs GM Brian Wright has considered. Atlanta has been lurking as a trade partner for months, with Dejounte Murray and significant draft capital available.
The Lakers sit at 5%, and while they always hover in these conversations, the realistic path is limited unless they’re willing to part with both Austin Reaves and multiple future picks. The Warriors and Heat, both at 4%, face similar obstacles: limited draft assets and salary matching complications. None of these teams have shown enough early volume to make a meaningful push in the market, but as the deadline approaches, these are the franchises most likely to test Milwaukee’s resolve if Giannis officially becomes available.
Milwaukee Bucks Playoffs Odds
The most concerning part of this entire situation for Milwaukee is the current playoff outlook. At 9-13, the Bucks sit well outside the Eastern Conference picture and carry longshot +370 odds to make the postseason, equivalent to just a 21% chance.
It is extremely rare for a team with Giannis Antetokounmpo to be this deep in the hole only six weeks into the season, and it underscores why trade speculation has intensified so quickly. Without a major turnaround, Milwaukee risks both missing the playoffs and burning what may be its final year with the Greek Freak. If they cannot reverse course soon, the internal pressure to consider a trade will only grow louder.
NBA ODDS
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