Penn State Next Head Coach Odds: Matt Campbell New Favorite After PSU Whiffs on Kalani Sitake, Panic Mounts
The Penn State coaching search has been one of the biggest stories in the college sports world this week, second only to the Lane Kiffin saga. After whiffing on Kalani Sitake in a very public miss, can AD Pat Kraft and the Nittany Lions finally find someone, and will it be Matt Campbell? Peter Alexis provides yet another update in the Penn State Next Head Coach odds as the pressure builds in Happy Valley.
Peter Alexis - December 4, 2025, 4:00 PM EST
5 Minute ReadPenn State Next Head Coach Odds: PSU Hoping for Matt Campbell After BYU Resigns Kalani Sitake
Penn State entered this week hoping to stabilize its program, reset the recruiting board, and finally close out a chaotic coaching search. Instead, National Signing Day arrived and passed with the Nittany Lions holding just two commitments and no head coach in place. The early signing period was supposed to be their anchor. Instead, it has become the symbol of how badly the situation has spiraled. James Franklin, fired midseason, has detonated what was left of Penn State’s class by flipping more than ten of their top recruits to his new post at Virginia Tech. The result is a recruiting class ranked barely inside the top 150, behind multiple FCS programs. The meltdown in Happy Valley has gone from alarming to unprecedented.
The panic only grew after Penn State swung and missed on one target after another. Their early pursuit of Kalani Sitake nearly worked, but BYU’s donor machine, led in part by the half-billionaire Crumbl Cookies CEO, stepped in and locked Sitake into a long term extension on Wednesday morning. Other top candidates have chosen stability over Penn State’s turmoil, leaving the Nittany Lions as one of the only major programs in the country still without a head coach. Every SEC vacancy has already been filled. Nearly every Power Five job has been claimed. Yet Penn State, the program that fired first, is still sitting empty-handed.
Now the search has narrowed into one of the strangest late-stage battles of the cycle. Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is the glimmer of hope, but the history is sobering: he has turned down bigger jobs than this for years. Terry Smith remains the in-house option at 23%, but hiring the interim after weeks of public misses would be a PR disaster. Manny Diaz hangs in the mix at 10% after guiding Duke to the ACC Championship Game, while Brian Daboll has faded sharply to 5% after early buzz. Five weeks ago this job looked like a prime landing spot. Today it looks radioactive. Pat Kraft is under enormous pressure, and the next move he makes could define Penn State football for a decade.
Bet on Penn State's Next Coach with Kalshi Here
Penn State Next Head Coach Odds at Kalshi
Coach | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Kalani Sitake | 41% |
Terry Smith | 23% |
Manny Diaz | 10% |
Brian Daboll | 5% |
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Penn State Next Head Coach Odds Update
Matt Campbell: 41% Chance
Campbell is the closest thing Penn State has to a lifeline. Iowa State has been one of the toughest jobs in the Power Five for decades, yet Campbell has turned the Cyclones into a perennial winner, bowl regular, and NFL factory. For years he has been the white whale of coaching searches, repeatedly declining overtures from NFL teams, USC, and multiple SEC powers.
The question is whether Penn State’s profile, even in its current turmoil, is the one that finally pulls him out of Ames. He is surging in the odds and has climbed as high as 41% on Kalshi, but there is a reason everyone is cautious. We have seen this exact story play out before, and it often ends with Campbell signing another extension and staying put.
Terry Smith: 23% Chance
Smith is beloved by the players, respected deeply within the building, and has kept the locker room from fracturing during the chaos. As interim coach he has steadied the ship as much as anyone reasonably could. But the optics of promoting Smith after publicly swinging big would be a brutal look for a fanbase already in meltdown mode.
Smith is still a viable option at 23%, but for Penn State to land here after weeks of chasing splash hires would cause backlash. He may remain on staff in a prominent role regardless, but making him the full time coach feels like Penn State’s last resort.
Manny Diaz 10% Chance
Diaz has quietly re-entered the conversation after guiding Duke to a surprising ACC Championship Game berth in his fsecond season. He has rebuilt his image since the Miami stint and has proven he can manage staff, develop a defense, and win at a difficult job.
But the ceiling question remains. With Penn State seeking a reset that inspires confidence and fixes the recruiting disaster, Diaz may not provide the scale of momentum the administration hopes for. Still, he sits at 10% and cannot be fully ruled out.
Brian Daboll 5% Chance
Daboll was one of the hottest names early in the week, surging into contention after his departure from the Giants. But that steam has evaporated. Concerns about his interest in the college grind, combined with Penn State’s preference to land a proven program builder, have pushed him down to 5%. His ties to Penn State remain meaningful and his résumé — national title at Alabama, Josh Allen’s development, NFL Coach of the Year honors — is impressive. But the momentum is gone. Unless the search collapses even further, Daboll appears to be drifting out of the real running.
Penn State’s coaching search is now in its most critical stage. With the recruiting class in ruins and the fanbase in open revolt, the next 48 hours may determine whether the Nittany Lions recover or fall deeper into crisis. Campbell is the prize. Smith is the safe fallback. Diaz is the steady-if-unspectacular middle ground. Daboll is the wild card that no longer seems likely. The clock is ticking, and Penn State is nearly out of options.
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