As the NFL regular season creeps closer and closer to its arrival there are lots of great wagers to make still out there on the board. Conversely, there are also a lot of foolish bets you can still make.
The purpose of this piece is to provide you some advice on what bets to stay away from. Sometimes, that’s just as important as selecting the right plays to make. The following five bets might seem appealing on the surface, but you should absolutely stay away from them if you want to keep hold of your hard earned cash.
Tom Brady could always suffer a season-ending injury that would throw the AFC East race into disarray, but that’s not something you should place a bet on. As long as Brady stays healthy, the Patriots are going to win this decision by a decisive margin.
For the record, this doesn’t mean we don’t like the Jets. Sam Darnold has looked excellent this preseason and seems to be poised to take a significant step forward in his sophomore season. The Jets will be an improved football team this year, but expecting them to topple New England is a foolish wager.
Spoiler alert, the Bears are the team I expect to suffer the most regression this season. First of all, I’m not a believer in Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Matt Nagy does an excellent job at putting his young quarterback in position to succeed, but Trubisky is nothing more than a caretaker quarterback.
It's also impossible to believe the Bears defense will force the same number of turnovers in 2019 that they profited from in 2018. Khalil Mack will still lead a disruptive unit, but the secondary’s interception rate is going to come back to Earth in a big way. Chicago might scrape their way into the playoffs, but they aren’t going to be a factor deep in the postseason.
Last time we checked, most offensive rookies of the year get the chance to actually play during their rookie season. There’s no indication that Haskins is going to get that chance with the Redskins. We like his chances to take over as Washington’s starting quarterback at some point this season, but it may not come until the second half of the campaign.
Every report out of the nation’s capital makes it obvious that Jay Gruden wants to start the year with a veteran under center. Case Keenum isn’t the long-term answer, but he should hold Haskins off until the team falls hopelessly out of playoff contention. Haskins simply won’t see the field enough to take home the hardware as a rookie.
Coincidentally, we don’t care for the player with the best MVP odds this season either. It’s really difficult to win the honor two years in a row. Mahomes caught the NFL by storm last season, but expectations are sky high for his encore performance this year.
We like Mahomes’ chances to have another really strong year, but it’s very likely he will experience a slight bit of regression towards the mean. In particular, look for him to suffer from a few more turnovers. He was one of the luckiest passers in the NFL last season, that tends not to happen two years in a row. Like Luck, Mahomes is primed for a big year, but the mountain of trying to repeat as MVP will be too high for him to climb. Focus your betting on talented players with longer odds. The favorites in this category don’t deserve your attention or your dollars.