Next Pope Odds: Who Will Succeed Pope Francis in the Papal Conclave?

We have black smoke on Day 1, so there has been no pope selected in the first conclave vote on Wednesday, May 7th. 133 Cardinals have sealed themselves inside the Sistine Chapel as of Wednesday morning, and they will not emerge until they have a two thirds majority vote for the Next Pope.

Until that happens, we can only speculate as to which way they will go, by analyzing the top candidates and exploring the odds of each Cardinal becoming Pope. In recent conclaves, it has taken 2-3 days for the white smoke to emerge, so we could have one as soon as Thursday evening, but likely before the weekend regardless.

Let's take a look at the latest Next Pope Odds, with a whirlwind of change over the last two weeks since Pope Francis passed on. Will the Catholic Church continue their progressive path, or steer back towards traditional values? Each candidate presents a unique asset, but have their own visions for the direction of Catholicism.

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Next Pope Odds

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Next Pope Odds: Who will take over in the Vatican?

The Favorite: Pietro Parolin (+225)

Pietro Parolin has been the clear Vatican favorite from Day 1, but that doesn't mean he'll be selected. What happens behind those closed doors of the Sistine Chapel is anyone's guess, these backgrounds are just the most complete and pope-like. Parolin has served as Secretary of State in the Vatican for the last 12 years, and has deep knowledge of the inner workings and politics surrounding the position.

Parolin is trading at 31% on Kalshi, and peaked as high as a 37% chance on the day of the Pope's passing. We have him set at +225 odds, giving him the best shot to take over as an establishment figure, but it will depend on how the group directs the vote. Many of these Cardinals have never met, and are coming from across the globe, so there's nothing to say they are close to an alignment on ideology.

Co-Front Runner: Luis Antonio Tagle (+275)

Luis Antonio Tagle hails from the Philippines, and has been a co-favorite along with Parolin over the last few weeks, but never surpassed him in the odds. He brings experience in the Asian market, which could definitely help expand the religion in a massive region. He climbed as high as 35% a few weeks ago, but has settled back down around 21%, and our odds have him at +275 going into the early voting.

Dark Horse Rising Odds: Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+500)

Mama Mia, Pizzaballa! The most Italian candidate possible has emerged from the woodwork in the last week or so, after barely appearing on the odds board after the initial release. Pizzaballa is from Northern Italy, but has been in Jerusalem as the Latin patriarch to the region. He is a moderate candidate, but people can look to his service in the middle east and handling of intense conflicts over the past few years as a strong positive that can be expanded globally.

Recent steam in the betting market has taken him to 10% on Kalshi, giving him the third-best odds to become the Pope now.

In the Mix: Matteo Zuppi (+600), Peter Erdo (+900), Peter Turkson (+1000)

After the top three, we have Zuppi and the Peter's, Erdo from Hungary and Turkson from Ghana. Both of the Peter's are more conservative figures, looking to return the church back in a conservative direction after Francis' policies of the last decade.

Zuppi is more of a progressive figure but also a mainstream Vatican establishment as well. He is like the left-leaning version of Parolin, so if the conclave decides to follow in Francis' footsteps, he would probably be the most alike.

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