Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can Jesus Luzardo, Marlins Avoid the Sweep?
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can Jesus Luzardo, Marlins Avoid the Sweep?
Braxton Garrett and the Miami Marlins let down sharps across the world last night in a brutal 14-6 loss. Most wouldn’t dare go back to the Marlins against the Atlanta Braves after getting burned on them the past two nights, but with Luzardo on the mound, Miami is the right side.
Marlins vs. Braves Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, May 3, 2023
- Game Time: 4:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
After a great first start for the Braves, Dylan Dodd got roughed up by the Padres for seven runs on ten hits in his last start. That was on April 9th. This afternoon, Dodd makes his first start in almost a month.
Unfortunately for the young lefty, his luck won’t get much better as he faces one of the best LHP-facing offenses in baseball. Miami is currently slashing .299 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez is currently hitting .432, first in all of baseball in batting average. It doesn’t matter if he’s facing a righty, lefty, rookie, or Jacob deGrom, Arraez is the best hitter in baseball right now. With how shaky Dodd looked in his last start, allowing ten hits, it won’t get any better against Miami’s righty-heavy lineup today.
Jazz Chisholm, one of Miami’s best players, is off today. This honestly may help the Marlins, considering Jazz’s struggles against LHP in his career. He also hasn’t played well in center field since moving from the infield this season. Miami has a better chance of defeating Atlanta and avoiding a sweep if Jazz is on the bench against LHP.
Jesus Luzardo is finally healthy and pitching like a borderline ace. The young lefty has only allowed more than three runs in a game once in 2023. Luzardo has 38 strikeouts in less than 33 innings pitched this season. Atlanta has the seventh most strikeouts in baseball this year; Luzardo should dominate this lineup, who tends to struggle against left-handed pitching.
Yes, Atlanta hit up Braxton Garrett, a lefty, for eleven runs on fourteen hits. Well, if Atlanta was so “free” today against the Marlins, why are they a coin flip to win per the odds? I’ll tell you why: Dylan Dodd isn’t pro-ready, and Miami is going to tee off on him similarly to how the Padres did last month. The Braves are probably using the bullpen game approach today with their young left-hander catching a short leash.
Either way, if this lineup even gets to just see Dodd one time through the order, that will be enough to produce a few runs. Even with Dodd potentially opening, his earned runs allowed prop currently sits at 2.5. Oddsmakers are expecting Dodd to give up multiple runs even if he’s opening or just pitching for two or three innings.
This Marlins lineup is simply undervalued this afternoon against the Braves. Miami has the pitching advantage and the best hitter in baseball, batting third surrounded by a heavy right-handed lineup. Jesus Luzardo is locked in and should catch the Braves sleeping after easily winning the first two games of the series. Back Miami on the moneyline to avoid the sweep and defeat the red-hot Braves.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
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Krabs is a contrarian bettor who isn’t afraid to fade the public or go against the grain. His betting style not only produces winners but has changed the way many think about the sports betting process. You’ll find Krabs betting on anything from the NFL (at a 60% clip in 2022) to the KBO (8-1-1 in 2022). You won’t find many handicappers with more college basketball knowledge or insight than Krabs. A native of the “DMV,” you can find his work @Krabs_Bets on Twitter, or on Behind the Lines, his daily sports betting show on twitch.