3 Best Home Run Prop Bets, Picks, and HR Odds For Tuesday, July 1st
We've made it to July in Major League Baseball, which means there are only a few games left before the all-star break. Jason Radowitz is getting after it on Dinger Tuesday as he looks for the best MLB Home Run Bets for July 1st. Check out these top MLB prop picks today, starring Nick Castellanos and others.
Jason Radowitz - July 1, 2025, 11:55 AM EDT
4 Minute Read3 Best Home Run Prop Bets, Picks, and HR Odds For Tuesday, July 1st
It's Tuesday in the MLB, and finally July! That means all 30 teams are playing, so there's a full 15-game slate!
That said, I reviewed the entire slate and added my favorite three home run props for tonight's games. Let's get to it!
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July 1 Best MLB Home Run Props
Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+480) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Nick Castellanos has added a .270 ISO and wOBA of .380 against his last 79 righties as a right-handed hitter. He's also smacked nearly 31% of fly balls and 23.6% of line drives against righties, while adding an 18.2% barrel percentage.
Meanwhile, he'll take on Nick Pivetta of the Padres. Pivetta, a right-handed pitcher, has allowed a .320 ISO and wOBA of .333 against his last 55 righties. Those righties have hit just 26.2% of ground balls and 42.9% of fly balls in the last month. Plus, Pivetta, a typically high strikeout pitcher, has earned only 18.2% of his strikeouts against righties during the previous 30 days.
Beyond that, Pivetta has given up a 19% barrel percentage, but only a .162 BABIP. The luck is about to run out for Pivetta when he faces Castellanos.
Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+310) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Riley Green has smashed a .348 ISO and wOBA of .478 against his last 71 righties. While his strikeout rate is high, he'll face Trevor Williams of the Nationals, who has struck out just 13.7% of righties over the last 30 days.
Additionally, Greene has hit 46.5% of fly balls and 27.9% of line drives over the last 30 days against righties. He's also hit 51.2% of hard contact and a team-leading 25.6% barrel percentage.
Meanwhile, Williams has allowed 45% of line drives against lefties over the last 30 days and has earned just 17.5% of ground balls. Williams has also added just 7.9% of swinging strikes against lefties and has allowed a 12.5% barrel percentage.
Give Greene a chance tonight.
Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Matt Olson is the hottest hitter against lefties over the last month in the Braves' lineup. It's shocking, especially since Olson is a lefty himself. But ultimately, he's hit a .273 ISO and wOBA of .430 against his last 22 lefties.
That said, he'll battle Tyler Anderson, who is a lefty that has allowed a .343 ISO and woBA of .500 to his last 37 lefties. Those 37 lefties have hit 36.7% of line drives and fly balls and have hit only 23.3% of grounders. In addition, Anderson has allowed a 16.7% barrel percentage with only 8% of swinging strikes. He's also given up more than 63% of hard contact to lefties over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Olson has hit 23.5% of line drives and a team-best 11.8% barrel percentage against lefties over the last 30 days. Olson can easily get to one.
Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets Today
- Nick Castellanos to Hit a Home Run (+480)
- Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+310)
- Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+300)
MLB ODDS
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