WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Holly Holm vs. Yana Santos Pick

WeBeatTheSpread's Premium Holly Holm vs. Yana Santos Pick

Pick: Holm by Decision @ (-110) Bet $100 to collect $190. FanDuel has the best odds, click here

Sprinkle: Holm by Sub @ + (2000) $100 to collect $2100. FanDuel has the best odds, click here

Holly Holm and Yana Santos will meet in a women's bantamweight fight at UFC Fight Night tonight in a fight between two veterans. With the state of the women's bantamweight division, it's not out of the realm of possibility to assume the winner could be looking at a title shot, which is insane to say about Holly Holm at 41. Given that Holm is the higher-profile fighter, she is a substantial -230 favorite.

Holly Holm, a former champion who famously beat Ronda Rousey at UFC 193, has gone 4-6 since then, with five of them being against former champions. When Holly Holm is losing, it is only to the best of the best. Her losses include Amanda Nunes, Cris Cyborg, Germaine de Randamie, Valentina Shevchenko, and Miesha Tate, all former champions. She has fought for the belt three times since losing to Tate and has lost every time.

Yana Santos, formerly Yana Kunitskaya, has a deceiving record with seven knockouts, which is uncommon for a female athlete. However, these all came against international fighters that most people have never heard of, so her wins may not be as impressive as they seem. Under the UFC banner, Santos is 4-3, with all four of her wins coming by way of decision and her three losses coming by way of technical knockout. In her most recent fight, she suffered a first-round TKO loss to Irene Aldana. Santos's losses in the UFC are to Cris Cyborg, Aspen Ladd, and Irene Aldana. It is concerning that all of her losses in the UFC have come by stoppage, and five of her six losses have not gone the distance.

In terms of grappling, Holm actually has a nice advantage in this fight. Although both women are primarily strikers, Holm has a grappling advantage and can expose Santos' lack of ground game. Holms is not a high-level grappler by any means, but she is still above the level of Santos on the mat. While I am taking Holm to win by decision, I don’t hate a sprinkle on Holm by submission at a highly-inflated price. Holm has not had a grappling advantage in many of her fights in her career, but this is one she actually does.

Santos has shown strong offensive wrestling in the past, but I would expect Holm, the superior striker, and athlete, to defend those takedowns before driving Santos into the fence for some clinch work. While winning ugly is still winning, I don't have high hopes for what could be another Holm decision.

At 41 years old, Holm may be in tail end of her career, but a win here could propel her back into title contention. With the women's bantamweight division lacking depth, any fighter with a big name can sneak into a title fight, so the winner of this fight could potentially be one win away from a title shot. Holm likely only has one push for the title left in her career, and she signed a new six-fight deal with the UFC for a reason. This seems like a setup for Holm to make one last run at the belt.