Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Prediction: Can Allen Get It Done at UFC Fight Night?
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Prediction: Can Allen Get It Done at UFC Fight Night?
No. 10 Brendan Allen and No. 13 Paul Craig square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night tonight in a five-round bout. Brendan Allen is on a five-fight win streak in the division and is hopeful that a few more wins can get him a shot at the belt. Meanwhile, Paul Craig is looking to make waves in his new division, and a win over a top-ten middleweight is a perfect stepping stone. However, Allen is a -425 to get it done tomorrow night and continue his climb.
Allen vs. Craig Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date:Â November 18, 2023
- Game Time: 5:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch:Â ESPN+
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Prediction
Paul Craig spent his UFC career at light heavyweight with mixed results. He has some very impressive wins, but also some bad losses. Craig even has a knockout win over the champ, Jamahal Hill. He also has a submission over former title-contender Magomed Ankalaev. However, a two-fight losing streak to Volkan Oezdemir and Johhny Walker sparked a move down to middleweight, where Craig started 1-0 against Andre Muniz with a knockout in the second round back in July.
Craig is one of the best submission artists in the UFC. Of his 17 wins, 13 are by submission, and he has submitted some of the top light heavyweight fighters. Craig hates the judges, as he has also never won by decision. 17 finishes in 17 wins. For Craig, he loves to be in a firefight, whether that fight is on the feet, or on the ground, although he prefers it on the ground. He can tend to overstep on the feet and risk more than he should to get fights to the ground, which has gotten him rocked before.
Brendan Allen is also a top submission threat. Brendan Allen is 22-5, and of those 22 wins, 13 have come by submission. Allen is just as dangerous on the ground, as four of his last five wins have come by submission. He also has five wins by knockout. Allen is 10-2 in the UFC, and his only two losses are to Chris Curtis and the current champion, Sean Strickland.
Brendan Allen is the more well-rounded fighter in this matchup, as his stand-up is just as good as his ground game. He has excellent footwork and he is sound defensively on the feet, not overextending himself and leaving himself open to counters.
I think many people expect this to be a pure grappling match, but I don't think we see this fight on the ground much. Sometimes, when two amazing grapplers fight, they can neutralize one another, and the fight stays standing. Craig has been open to trading wars on the feet, and Allen knows he has the advantage on the feet, so he will be more than happy to keep it there. Given that, I like playing Allen by KO to erase the juice on the ML. This fight should play out on the feet, and if it does, Allen will clip Craig with a big shot at some point. He is simply the better striker.
Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Pick
Pick: Brendan Allen by KO/TKO +125 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.