Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Odds for UFC 324

This fight is all about price, path to victory, and how much weight we are putting on recent optics versus long term skill sets.

On the surface, it makes sense why Modestas Bukausas is the popular side. He is younger, riding a strong run in his second UFC stint and has not shown the same durability red flags that Nikita Krylov has since returning from his long layoff. Public money has piled in accordingly. That said, when you strip this matchup down stylistically, Krylov still checks more boxes than the betting market is giving him credit for.

Even after the layoffs and knockouts, Krylov remains the more effective overall fighter by the numbers. He consistently outlands opponents at distance and has done so throughout his UFC career against far stronger competition than Bukausas has faced. Bukausas has actually been outstruck on average in his UFC fights, which matters here because Krylov is not the kind of opponent who fades quietly if allowed to work.

Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for the UFC 324 main card battle of Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas.

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Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas Odds

• Moneyline: Krylov (+110), Bukauskas (-130)

Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET (Estimated Fight Time)
• Where to Watch: Paramount+

Click here for complete Krylov vs. Bukauskas odds

Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas Prediction

Where this fight really swings is in grappling intent. Krylov has spent the majority of his UFC career leaning on wrestling and top control, and when he commits to that game plan, he is very difficult to deal with. He averages heavy takedown volume historically and has shown the ability to rack up long stretches of control time against legitimate light heavyweight contenders. His wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker are strong reminders of what that looks like when executed properly.

The concern, of course, is that Krylov did not wrestle at all in his two fights since returning. That is where the market fear comes from. However, those losses came in chaotic early exchanges where Krylov abandoned his safest path. Against a more measured striker like Bukausas, there is a much clearer incentive to slow the fight down, mix in takedowns and force extended grappling exchanges. If Krylov wrestles even close to his career norms, this becomes a very different fight.

Bukausas has improved defensively on the mat, but that improvement has largely come against opponents who do not chain wrestle or apply sustained top pressure. Krylov does both. He does not need a high takedown success rate if he is willing to shoot repeatedly and grind. Over three rounds, that style drains opponents and wins minutes, even if it does not lead to a finish. Another overlooked angle is how competitive Krylov is in longer fights. Despite his reputation as a finisher, he has proven he can win decisions against high level opposition when he leans into control. The market is pricing a Krylov decision win as extremely unlikely, yet that outcome lines up well with his optimal approach here and adds hidden value to his moneyline.

Yes, there is real risk. Krylov is coming off back to back knockout losses and durability is a question at this stage of his career. That uncertainty is already baked into the line and then some. The market has swung too far toward Bukausas on form alone, ignoring matchup dynamics and experience gaps.

At plus money, I am willing to back the veteran to fight smart, wrestle early and often, and remind people that he is still a problem when he sticks to a disciplined game plan.

Nikita Krylov vs. Modestas Bukauskas Pick

• Pick: Nikita Krylov ML (+115) Click here for complete Krylov vs. Bukauskas odds

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