Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Graham Mertz, Gators Pull Off the Upset?
The Florida Gators will travel to Lexington, Kentucky to face the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats in Week 5. Can Graham Mertz and the Gators pull off the upset? College Football analyst Matthew MacKay shares his Florida vs. Kentucky pick.
Matt MacKay - September 25, 2023, 12:11 PM EDT
7 minFlorida vs. Kentucky Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Graham Mertz, Gators Pull Off Upset?
The Florida Gators will travel to Lexington, Kentucky to face the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats in Week 5. It's an SEC clash between two opponents that tend to play low-scoring, competitive matchups.
Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops is among the most tenured head coaches in all of college football, but the Wildcats' strength of schedule is 129th out of 133 FBS programs, compared to Florida, who has 65th SOS, losing on the road to Utah in its opener. However, a statement win at home in Week 3 over the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers showed us the talent and resiliency the Gators possess. Coached by Billy Napier, and led by transfer quarterback Graham Mertz, the Gators are mediocre offensively, but stout on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage.
Florida ranks 19th in opponent points allowed per game, averaging 13.5 through four weeks, while the Wildcats have scored 28-45 points in every game played, albeit against two MAC schools and a non-major team, Eastern Kentucky, that they only beat by 11 points. Yes, the Wildcats did beat Vanderbilt, an SEC program, 45-28 last week on the road, but Florida's defense should present a much bigger challenge for Kentucky's pro-style offense.
NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is back with his prediction and pick to make for this SEC matchup between the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators.
Florida vs. Kentucky Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds
- Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023
- Game Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Florida vs. Kentucky Odds
- Spread: Kentucky -3 (-110), Florida +3 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 45.5 (-105), Over 45.5 (-115)
- Moneyline Odds: Kentucky (-152), Florida (+126)
Florida vs. Kentucky College Injury Report
Florida
Questionable: N/A
Out: RB Cameron Carroll (Knee)
Kentucky
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction
Kentucky has won two straight games in this matchup entering Saturday's home game in Lexington, but they won't have quarterback Will Levis under center this time around. Quarterback Devin Leary, a transfer from NC State, has played fairly well, but he's completing less than 60 percent of his passes, along with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. Re'Mahn Davis, RB1 for the Wildcats, is the workhorse, averaging 6.3 YPC and seven total rushing touchdowns, along with close to 500 scrimmage yards.
Defensively, the Wildcats have been a solid run defense, giving up more air yards and chunk plays in the passing game. Florida's quarterback, Graham Mertz, a former Wisconsin quarterback, has been extremely efficient, averaging a 77.4 percent completion rate despite only throwing for one touchdown in each game thus far. Defensively, the Gators are dialed in, although they have only forced one turnover this season, which came in its biggest win against the Volunteers.
Florida is a run-centric offense that has attempted 35-51 carries in each of its last three games, taking the ball out of Mertz's hands in favor of Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson. This dynamic dual-backfield will be tested against Kentucky's run defense, but Mertz has proven to be a more than capable signal-caller when it comes to using his arm to move the chains.
Oddsmakers have Kentucky valued as a slight favorite at home, laying three points ATS, with -152 moneyline odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Florida, since its opening 13-point loss on the road against a tough Utah defense, has won all three of its games by double-digits. However, excluding their non-major win over McNeese State, all of their games have been under the point total line.
We're landing 45.5 as the point total in this game, which is pretty low for college football. Three of Florida's four games have gone under 45.5, while Kentucky has gone over 45.5 twice against Vanderbilt and Ball State. Kentucky has won the past two head-to-head matchups, but Florida is set to at least keep it competitive, getting three points against a Wildcats team that has yet to be fully tested.
The Gators may extend their winning streak and pull off the outright upset in Lexington, but this could be a low-scoring, down-to-the-final-whistle type of game for both teams. We'll play it safe with Florida +3 at -110 odds.
Florida vs. Kentucky Pick
- Pick: Florida +3 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds.
College Football Odds
