Kansas vs. Texas Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Jayhawks Stop Quinn Ewers, Longhorns?
Two undefeated Big 12 opponents will face off in Austin, Texas during the Week 5 college football slate, as the No. 3 Texas Longhorns host the No. 24 Kansas Jayhawks. Can the Jayhawks stop Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns? Matthew MacKay breaks down the Kansas vs. Texas game.
Matt MacKay - September 25, 2023, 12:50 PM EDT
9 minKansas vs. Texas Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can the Jayhawks Stop Quinn Ewers, Longhorns?
Two undefeated Big 12 opponents will face off in Austin, Texas during the Week 5 college football slate, as the No. 3 Texas Longhorns host the No. 24 Kansas Jayhawks.
Steve Sarkisian's statement win on the road against Alabama was not a flash in the pan. The Longhorns, led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, have since won 31-10 over Wyoming and 38-6 against Baylor on the road in primetime. The remainder of its schedule is winnable, but Kansas has one of the most high-octane offenses in the country behind quarterback Jalon Daniels.
Kansas got Daniels back into its offense in Week 2, operating as a well-oiled machine, scoring over 30 points in every game since his return. Not every game has been a dominant effort on both sides of the line of scrimmage, as the Jayhawks are allowing 22.8 points per game, ranked 63rd in the nation while playing a 115th-ranked strength of schedule. It's an opportunistic defense that has forced two-plus turnovers in three of its four games, while the offense relies on its rushing attack, led by Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw Jr.
Texas has a balanced offense that can beat opponents through the air or on the ground, as the latter was demonstrated this past Saturday, with the Longhorns racking up four rushing touchdowns with 5.1 YPC. Since its win at Alabama, Texas' defense has been the biggest bright spot for Sarkisian, allowing one total touchdown, while holding Baylor to 1.9 YPC on 31 attempts.
Texas enters this game 4-1 SU against Kansas in its last five head-to-head matchups, as the Jayhawks managed to pull off a 57-56 upset win over the Longhorns in Austin back in 2021. In 2022, Texas marched into Kansas' stadium and routed them 55-14 as 8.5-point road favorites. This time around, back home at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, the Longhorns are 17-point favorites ATS and -880 on the moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook. The point total line is set at 62.5.
Will Texas stumble on its mission to clinch their first College Football Playoff berth before the eight-team playoff expansion goes into effect in 2024? Or will Kansas get routed for the second consecutive year in just its second road game of the season? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his latest prediction and pick for this Big 12 matchup in Week 5 between the Texas Longhorns and Kansas Jayhawks.
Kansas vs. Texas Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds
- Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023
- Game Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
Kansas vs. Texas Odds
- Spread: Texas -17 (-110), Kansas +17 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 62.5 (-110), Over 62.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Texas (-880), Kansas (+580)
Kansas vs. Texas College Injury Report
Kansas
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Texas
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Kansas vs. Texas Prediction
Quinn Ewers could have his way with Kansas' defense, which has allowed three quarterbacks to complete at least 66 percent of their pass attempts, albeit on low volume. However, if the passing attack stalls, the Longhorns can simply feed Jonathan Brooks, who is averaging 5.8 YPC with four total touchdowns in the backfield.
The Longhorns' wide receiving corps has explosive playmakers who can each dominate a one-on-one matchup, including Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, and Ja'Tavion Sanders. Kansas could see more of Texas' rushing attack, as it's had a difficult time stopping opponents on the ground, allowing at least one rushing touchdown in every single game through four weeks.
If Texas' defense is as good as it appears to be, this point total line is set too high. We've seen three straight games in this series go over 62.5 points, but this could be a matchup where the Longhorns win 44-10 or 51-7. Both teams are 2-2 ATS, and 17 points is a lot to win by for bettors to feel confident backing Texas. The moneyline odds are way too juiced to be worth any consideration for Texas, and there's little optimism that Kansas can pull off another road upset against this version of the Longhorns, negating their +580 moneyline odds.
None of Texas' games have exceeded 58 total points. Factor in both teams' preference to establish the run, which will grind the clock and create fewer possessions, the best bet to make in this Big 12 matchup is wagering under 62.5 at -110 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Kansas vs. Texas Pick
- Pick: Under 62.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds.
College Football Odds
