Michigan vs. Nebraska Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can J.J. McCarthy, Michigan Dominate the Cornhuskers?
The Michigan Wolverines are playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers in College Football Week 5. Can J.J. McCarthy and Michigan dominate the Cornhuskers on Saturday? Matthew MacKay answers.
Matt MacKay - September 25, 2023, 12:29 PM EDT
9 minMichigan vs. Nebraska Prediction, Pick, Odds:
Michigan took a while to get going against Rutgers in Week 4, but then they found their rhythm, cruising to a 31-7 win at home during head coach Jim Harbaugh's first game back from suspension. On the other sideline, Nebraska head coach, Matt Rhule, has not had a great start to his tenure, losing on a walk-off field goal against Minnesota in Week 1, then losing by 22 points against Colorado.
Two matchups against non-Power 5 opponents have the Cornhuskers sitting at 2-2 entering a Week 5 home matchup against the Wolverines. Perhaps their switch at quarterback could provide some confidence going against the nation's top-ranked defense in points allowed per game. Michigan is surrendering just 5.8 points per game, not allowing any of its opponents to score more than seven points. While this is extremely impressive, let's factor in the Wolverines' strength of schedule, as they have played ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green, and Rutgers.
Despite the turnaround from Nebraska against lesser opponents in Weeks 3 and 4, Michigan will be a tough out for Nebraska, who relies on its rushing attack to keep the chains moving. Nebraska's defense is no pushover, as they have forced a turnover in all four games, while limiting opponents' rushing attack to a 1.8 YPC average, including two games without a rushing touchdown allowed.
This is why oddsmakers have this Big Ten matchup point total set to 41 points, among the lowest on the Week 5 slate. Michigan is -1100 on the moneyline while getting 17.5 points ATS as road favorites at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. The last three head-to-head matchups have all been won by Michigan, but the Cornhuskers did manage to push the Wolverines during a 32-20 loss in 2021, which was the last time Michigan played at Nebraska.
Will Michigan's defense continue to shut down its opponent? Or will Nebraska rely on its defense and new quarterback to stay competitive down the stretch in a game that projects to be one of the lowest-scoring contests in Week 5? NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here to give us his latest prediction and pick in this Big Ten interdivisional matchup between the Michigan Wolverines and Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Michigan vs. Nebraska Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds
- Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023
- Game Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
Michigan vs. Nebraska Odds
- Spread: Michigan -17.5 (-115), Nebraska +17.5 (-105)
- Total Odds: Under 41 (-110), Over 41 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan (-1100), Nebraska (+680)
Michigan vs. Nebraska College Injury Report
Michigan
Questionable: N/A
Out: N/A
Nebraska
Questionable: N/A
Out: DB Dwight Bootle II (Shoulder), RB Gabe Ervin Jr. (Hip), RB Rahmir Johnson (Shoulder), WR Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda (Knee)
Michigan vs. Nebraska Prediction
Rutgers scored first against Michigan in Week 4, ripping off a 69-yard reception in the first minute to put the Wolverines behind early. That served as a wake-up call for Michigan, who then recorded four unanswered touchdowns, including a 71-yard pick-six. The Wolverines' strength is its rushing attack, led by running back Blake Corum, but that will be put to the test against Nebraska's top-tier run defense.
The Cornhuskers have held all four of its opponents under 2.3 YPC while surrendering three total rushing touchdowns. Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be tasked with a bit more on his plate than we've seen through the first four weeks, as he's attempted 21 or fewer passes in two consecutive games. This includes three interceptions against Bowling Green in Week 3, which could keep Nebraska competitive if McCarthy is forced to air it out in Lincoln.
Nebraska's quarterback change from Jeff Sims to Heinrich Haarberg has looked like the right move to make. Haarberg has not completed many pass attempts, but he's sporting a 4:0 touchdown to interception ratio, having yet to commit an interception through two starts. The problem for Nebraska is that Michigan's defense has only allowed two total touchdowns through four games, so it'll be tough to manufacture a win with an offense that relies on its run-centric scheme to pick up yards to get into scoring position.
There's a reason we're only getting 41 points as the point total line in this game. Normally, college football games climb well into 50-plus points, often 60-plus, so oddsmakers recognize the quality defenses in this matchup, along with two offenses that rely on a ground-and-pound approach to win games. Still, 41 points is not much, so betting on either side of this line feels like too much risk to take on.
Michigan is 0-3-1 ATS, so 17.5 points in a low-scoring game feels like a lot to wager. Nebraska, conversely, is 2-2 ATS, while going under in three of its games played. There's no reason to look at the moneyline odds, as Nebraska's ability to win outright is not worth +680 odds. It should be +1600 odds if we're being fully honest.
This leaves us with betting the alternate spread to make sure Michigan covers. I'm intrigued by the point total line, but at an even 41 points, there's an opportunity we push, if Michigan wins 38-3 or 41-0, which is not ideal either. Michigan has won two of its past three head-to-head matchups handily, but winning by 18 points is a lot to ask of a run-centric offense facing a tough run defense. Winning by 15 points at -14.5, however, feels like a better wager to place. We're getting more juice at -170 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, but a win is a win.
Let's ride Michigan's alternate spread of -14.5 at -170 odds, which is slightly lower than the default spread set at -17.5, ensuring we avoid disappointment and cash a winning ticket.
Michigan vs. Nebraska Pick
- Pick: Michigan Alternate Spread -14.5 (-170) is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds.
College Football Odds
