BYU vs. Cincinnati Best Bet: Can Kedon Slovis, Cougars Cover at Home?
BYU vs. Cincinnati Best Bet: Can Kedon Slovis, Cougars Cover at Home?
The Cincinnati Bearcats hit the road after an embarrassing home loss against Oklahoma and travel to Utah to take on the BYU Cougars. It's a battle of cats, and the line has been all over the place, with BYU opening as a favorite but being bet through zero to the point where they are currently 1.5-point underdogs. Some books have a pick 'em, but either way, this is expected to be a close game. However, I am not concerned as much with who wins the game, but rather how many points we see.
Cincinnati vs. BYU Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: September 29, 2023
- Game Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Cincinnati vs. BYU Prediction
The total is under 50 here, sitting right at 49.5, which implicates a defensive game between the Bearcats and the Cougars, but I see it a bit differently. Some offensive progression is due for the Bearcats. Sure, last week's game finished 6-20 against Oklahoma, with Cincinnati failing to find the end zone even once, but they should start to see more success. Cincinnati went 0-2 in the red zone, but they finished with nearly 400 yards of offense. They also went for it four times on fourth down, converting just once. Before that Oklahoma game, Cincy had gone over the total in their first three games, ending with a combined 79 points in week one, 48 in week two, and 55 in week three.
Emory Jones, the dual-threat quarterback for Cincinnati, has just about as much experience as you could ask for, as he is playing in his sixth season in college football. Despite playing two good defenses, Jones has 970 yards through the air through his first four games and has 186 yards on the ground. The Cincy offense ranks 40th in passing success rate, although Jones has been turnover-prone. Still, he should find success against an underwhelming BYU defense that is beatable.
On the other side, The Cougars have a high-flying, explosive offense, with a mid defense. Since a 14-0 win over Sam Houston in week one, the BYU offense has found it's groove, and the total has gone over in their last three games, totaling 57 in week two, 69 in week two, and 65 last week against Kansas. The total has risen in each BYU game since week one, from 46.5 in week one to 56.5 last week, but this week it has fallen all the way back down to 49.5.
The Cougars have their own veteran QB in Kedon Slovis, who is playing in his fifth season in college football. Slovis spent three seasons at USC to open his college career before playing last season at Pitt. Now, he is in Utah, airing it out for the Cougars. After a slow week one, Slovis has 872 passing yards over his last three games and threw for 357 yards last week against Kansas. BYU has a deep receiving corps, with Isaac Rex, Chase Roberts, and Darius Lassiter all rounding out some serious weaponry for Slovis to throw to. BYU does not run the ball much, as they pass on 61.1% of plays. That speaks to how BYU plays games and what we should expect tonight.
Cincinnati has had 914 yards of offense the last two weeks while losing both games and scoring a combined 30 points. That is insane, and I expect positive regression for the scoring on Cincy's side this week against a mid-tier BYU defense. On the other side, BYU hates running the ball, and they will be airing it out all game, hitting big plays, and stopping the clock on drops. Slovis has a plethora of targets to hit in this game, and I expect a back-and-forth scoring affair, as the line suggests at 1.5. I think this total is skewed by Cincinnati's last few weeks and bad luck on offense. We should see at least 50 points in this game.
Pick: BYU/Cincinnati Over 49.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.