North Texas vs. SMU Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
North Texas has had a very interesting season as they have one of the worst defenses in the country, but they also have one of the most potent passing attacks with ULM transfer, Chandler Rogers. Who has the edge tonight in this AAC showdown? Let's break it down.
Joey Ruiz - November 10, 2023, 4:18 PM EST
7 minNorth Texas vs. SMU Prediction, Pick Against the Spread, and Latest Odds
North Texas enters this matchup with SMU with a record of 3-6 but they have played a fairly tough schedule to this point. Their six losses came against Cal (Before Chandler Rogers was named starter), against FIU (Before Chandler Rogers was named starter), against Navy by three (covered the spread), against Tulane by seven (covered the spread), at home against Memphis by three (covered the spread), and at home to UTSA by eight (covered the spread).
North Texas vs. SMU Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: November 10, 2023
- Game Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where To Watch: ESPN2
North Texas vs. SMU Odds
- Spread: North Texas +21 (-118), SMU -21 (+110)
- Total Odds: O 65 (-110), U 65 (-107)
- Moneyline Odds: North Texas (+800), SMU (-1152)
North Texas vs. SMU Prediction
So North Texas has played three of the top four teams in the AAC this season and played all of them tough to one score games. The caveat to their results however is that they were down at halftime BIG in all of those games and came back in the second half to cover all of those games as they have been very slow starters this season.
On the road against Tulane, they were down 21-0 at halftime, ad home against Memphis they were down 31-10 at halftime, and at home against UTSA they were down 27-13 at the break. That is an average of 26.33 FIRST HALF points allowed and only 7.67 points scored.
The crutch for North Texas this season has been their extremely below average defense which is ranked dead last (133rd) in the FBS in yards allowed per game (479), 126th in yards allowed per play (6.4), 110th in defensive third down conversion rate allowed (45%), 132nd in yards allowed per carry (5.7), and 95th in yards allowed per passing attempt (7.9).
On the other side, this SMU team has done a pretty good job at taking care of bottom feeders this season. The Mustangs were up 31-0 at halftime and beat LTU 38-14, 42-0 at half time and beat PVAM 69-0, 17-3 at half time against Charlotte as they covered that first half spread, 24-0 at half time against Temple and won 55-0, and were up 52-3 at half time against Tulsa as they won 69-10.
SMU has one of the best passing defenses in the nation as they are only allowing 5.7 yards per passing attempt (eighth) and 180 passing yards per game (12th). I think North Texas will struggle out of the gates and then make second half adjustments as they have all season. Could be a similar game flow to last night as we saw Virginia come out of the gates slow and then storm back in the second half to nearly win straight up.
SMU also covered the first half against Charlotte and then parked the bus in the second half and failed to cover the full game spread so they have set a precedent for that type of game too. With that being said, I am taking a different and more unorthodox betting approach to this game. I am rolling with SMU 1H -10.5 at -114 for 1U and ALSO taking North Texas Full Game +21 at -118 for 1U (Bookmaker). If both teams stick to their typical team and situational tendencies, I think this is a solid angle. Taking a shot and having some fun with it and think we can hit both here.
North Texas vs. SMU Picks
- 1U SMU 1H -10.5 -114 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- 1U North Texas Full Game +21 -118 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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