Rutgers vs. Iowa Prediction: Can Hawkeyes Defense Hold Rutgers to Historically Low Score?
The Iowa Hawkeyes and Rutgers Scarlet Knights will go head-to-head in a game with the lowest FBS total ever recorded. Can this classic Big Ten battle live up to the defensive hype and stay under? Ben Rajavuori gives his analysis on the shocking total.
Ben Rajavuori - November 10, 2023, 5:04 PM EST
5 minRutgers vs. Iowa Prediction: Can Hawkeyes Defense Hold Rutgers to Historically Low Score?
The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in a Big 10 showdown that could decide the Big 10 West. Iowa is 4-2 in conference and can essentially lock up a Big 10 Championship appearance with a win tomorrow. Rutgers has had a pretty good season, sitting 6-3 and fourth in the Big 10 East behind Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State. This matchup has a historically low total of 28 points, which is the lowest total in FBS history. With a matchup with a total this low, is there any way it still goes under?
Rutgers vs. Iowa Date, Start Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: November 11, 2023
- Game Time: 3:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: Fox Sports
Rutgers vs. Iowa Odds
- Spread: Rutgers +2.5 (-110), Iowa -2.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Over 28.5 (-110), Under 28.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Rutgers (+105), Iowa (-125)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction
There has been a lot of talk about Iowa's offense over the past few seasons and for a good reason, they cannot move the ball. Iowa ranks dead last in the FBS with 225 yards of offense per game, and they average just four yards per game. They only get 110 passing yards per game, which is 131st in the FBS.
However, for all their woes on offense, they are very good on defense, which is how they are sitting on top in the Big 10 West. Their defense ranks 2nd in yards per play, allowing just four per play. They only give up 297 yards of offense per game and they do not give up much to opposing teams on the ground or through the air. They rank first on defense in yards per completion at 8.5 yards. They limit opposing quarterbacks, just to get the ball back and do nothing on offense.
Rutgers is a similar team. They rank 11th in the FBS, only allowing 283 yards of offense per game. They only give up 159 passing yards per game, which is sixth. Their secondary is up there among the best in college football, and they give up nearly no explosive plays and they don't usually miss tackles. Only the best offenses can expose Rutgers, and Iowa does not have that.
These are two excellent secondaries facing off tomorrow, with neither team giving up much through the air. Iowa ranks first in overall coverage, while Rutgers ranks 8th, per PFF. Additionally, both teams play at a snail's pace, as Iowa ranks 98th in pace, running just one play every 28.8 seconds, while Rutgers is 126th in pace, running a play every 30.4 seconds. Neither team pushes the ball down the field quickly. Both teams also run the ball a LOT. Rutgers is 9th in rushing rate, while Iowa is 19th.
All this to say, every sign points to the under. There's a reason this total has made history. Both teams are inept on offense and kill it on defense. Both teams run a lot, keeping the clock moving, and both take their time running plays when they have the ball. Iowa games have gone under 28 points in three straight games. Their highest conference total was 26 points against Michigan State, but they only had 222 yards of offense and capitalized off four turnovers. This game will be a slugfest on the ground. I wouldn't be surprised if each team only scored one touchdown. This has the feeling of a 13-10 game or even lower.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Pick
- Pick: Iowa/Rutgers Under 28 -112 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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