Florida vs. LSU Prediction: Can Graham Mertz, Gators Compete with LSU?
The Florida Gators are looking to stop a losing skid after coming up short against Arkansas last week. Can Graham Mertz and the Gators bounce back against LSU and keep it close? Joey Ruiz gives his analysis on this Saturday night SEC battle.
Joey Ruiz - November 11, 2023, 1:30 PM EST
5 minFlorida vs. LSU Prediction: Can Graham Mertz, Gators Compete with LSU?
Florida is coming off a tough overtime to loss to Arkansas last week which was a very back and forth affair. How will they play on the road in Death Valley against an LSU squad coming off a loss to Alabama? Let's break it down.
Florida vs. LSU Date, Start Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: November 11, 2023
- Game Time: 7:30 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
Florida vs. LSU Prediction
When Graham Mertz transferred to Florida in the offseason, many people were skeptical about the level of success he could have in the SEC against top tier opponents considering how bad he was in games with Wisconsin, but Mertz has put a lot of the haters to rest.
Graham Mertz is having an excellent season as the lead signal caller for this Gators team as he is averaging 268 passing yards per game, with a completion percentage of 74% and a 17:2 touchdown to interception ratio. Mertz has actually been sensational for this Gators team, but this Florida offense has been cooking as they have scored an average of 29 points per game. Now they get to take on an LSU defense that has really struggled to defend in conference play.
In SEC play to this point, LSU has allowed 42 points and 507 yards to Alabama, 18 points and 293 yards to Auburn (a team who can't throw), 39 points and 527 yards to Missouri, 55 points and a whopping 706 yards to Ole Miss, and 31 points and 426 yards to Arkansas with Dan Enos, who failed to score a TD against Mississippi State a few weeks ago, and was subsequently fired.
This LSU defense has really struggled this season as they are ranked 104th in yards allowed per rush (4.8), 105th in yards allowed per passing attempt (8.1), 115th in yards allowed per play (6.2), and 129th in defensive 3rd down conversion rate allowed (49%). Those stats are bad but they are even worse when you consider that blowout wins over Army (62-0) and Grambling (72-10) are included to pad those averages a bit.
Florida should be able to move the ball in this game against a very weak LSU defense whose title and SEC championship hopes were just crushed after a two-touchdown loss to Alabama. Florida has played in a lot of close games this season including games against South Carolina, Arkansas, and a win over Tennessee, and this spread seems way too high for an LSU group that can barely stop a nosebleed.
With that being said, I am rolling with Florida +15 at -110 for two units as one of my most confident college football plays of the day for tonight's action as I think the Gators can keep this game within two scores.
Florida vs. LSU Pick
2 unit Pick: Florida +15 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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