Iowa State vs. Kansas State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Rocco Becht, Cyclones Keep It Close with Wildcats?
The Iowa State Cyclones will visit the Kansas State Wildcats for a Big 12 clash to end the season. Can Rocco Becht and the Cyclones keep it close with the Wildcats? Matt MacKay gives his pick against the spread in Iowa State vs. Kansas State.
Matt MacKay - November 20, 2023, 11:15 AM EST
5 minIowa State vs. Kansas State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Rocco Becht, Cyclones Keep It Close with Wildcats?
A Saturday night tilt between Big 12 rivals Iowa State and No. 19 Kansas State will give us plenty of entertainment during rivalry week in college football.
The Wildcats just went into Kansas and beat the Jayhawks 31-27, earning their second consecutive win to improve to 8-3 on the season after suffering a 33-30 loss to Texas on the road in overtime a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Iowa State Cyclones, led by eighth-year head coach, Matt Campbell, deploy their customary stout defense, ranked 33rd in the FBS in points allowed per game (20.5) to earn wins with an offense ranked 82nd (24.8) in points scored per game.
We've seen some tightly contested matchups between these two teams in recent years, with Iowa State holding a 3-2 series lead since 2018. The Cyclones hosted Kansas State in 2022 and covered +2 ATS in a 10-9 loss. Now, they travel to Manhattan, Kansas to face quarterback Will Howard and the rest of the Wildcats' potent offense to attempt improving to 6-3 within the Big 12.
NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay shares his latest prediction and pick between Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Week 13.
IOWA STATE VS. KANSAS STATE PREDICTION, PICK, ODDS: DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Saturday, November 25, 2023
- Game Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: FOX
IOWA STATE VS. KANSAS STATE ODDS
- Spread: Iowa State +11.5 (-110), Kansas State -11.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 48.5 (-110), Over 48.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Iowa State (+360), Kansas State (-480)
IOWA STATE VS. KANSAS STATE INJURY REPORT
IOWA STATE
Questionable: NA
Out: NA
KANSAS STATE
Questionable: NA
Out: LB Asa Newsom (Undisclosed), LB Daniel Green (Pectoral)
IOWA STATE VS. KANSAS STATE PREDICTION
The Cyclones have begun to generate more offense than they did earlier in the season, scoring over 30 points in four of its past five games before being held to 16 points at home against a very good Texas defense in Week 12. The run game was stymied for the first time in weeks against the Longhorns, but Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht completed 75 percent of his pass attempts for 323 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 26-16 losing effort.
Kansas State managed a late comeback on the road against a talented Kansas team in Week 12, which should give them confidence and momentum hosting a less-talented Iowa State offense. The Wildcats biggest strength is their offense, which has scored ten touchdowns in its past two games, while only committing one turnover. The defense isn't as talented as the offense but it's still a top-25 unit in points allowed per game (19.3) this season.
If there's an area Iowa State can exploit the Wildcats in this prime time rivalry game, it will be due to its rushing attack. The Cyclones had been trending upward with their run game prior to the Texas loss, scoring eight rushing touchdowns and attempting 30 or more carries with three of its past six outings resulting in at least 4.6 YPC. Kansas State has a much better offense, so expect Campbell to deploy a methodical, slow burn on offense to keep the Wildcats' offense on the sideline, while moving the ball down the field into scoring position.
The Cyclones have also forced four turnovers in their past two games, while only committing one on offense. Kansas State has been elite at forcing turnovers, recording ten in their last three games played. so if Iowa State wants any chance to pull off the outright upset, minimal mistakes made an offense is the path to victory.
Oddsmakers have this game pegged at 48.5 total points, which feels right. Iowa State is getting 11.5 points on the road, while Kansas State is -480 moneyline favorites. The Cyclones are 6-5 ATS, while the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS. Iowa State is 7-4 in favor of the under this season. Looking at their recent games, the point total has gone 40, 48, 49, 58, and 42. Meanwhile, Kansas State has scored at least 30 points in six consecutive contests.
The Cyclones haven't lost by more than 11 points in this matchup since 2018. They also haven't lost by more than 11 points since a 50-20 road loss to Oklahoma in late September. Let's invest 1.5 units on Iowa State to cover as +11.5-point underdogs on the road against Kansas State with their strong defense and an offense that makes minimal errors.
IOWA STATE VS. KANSAS STATE PICK
- Iowa State +11.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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