New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Diego Pavia, Aggies Dominate in New Mexico Bowl?
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Diego Pavia, Aggies Dominate in New Mexico Bowl?
The 2023 college football bowl season is upon us. For starters, we've got New Mexico State against Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday night.
We've seen both of these teams peak at different moments during the regular season, as Fresno State lost three consecutive contests to finish their season 8-4, winding up .500 in the Mountain West Conference. Meanwhile, Diego Pavia and the New Mexico State Aggies dominated most Conference USA opponents, excluding undefeated Liberty, who beat them by double-digits in both outings.
NCAAF handicapper Matt MacKay is here to give us his latest prediction and pick for New Mexico State vs. Fresno State in the 2023 New Mexico Bowl.
NEW MEXICO STATE VS. FRESNO STATE DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Saturday, December 16, 2023
- Game Time: 5:45 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN and ESPN+
NEW MEXICO STATE VS. FRESNO STATE ODDS
- Spread: New Mexico State -3.5 (-110). Fresno State +3.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 51.5 (-115), Over 51.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: New Mexico State (-166), Fresno State (+138)
NEW MEXICO STATE VS. FRESNO STATE INJURY REPORT
NEW MEXICO STATE
Probable: QB Diego Pavia (Shoulder)
Out: NA
FRESNO STATE
Questionable: NA
Out: RB Damien Moore (Undisclosed)
NEW MEXICO STATE VS. FRESNO STATE PREDICTION
Pavia's shoulder was injured during the Conference USA championship game against Liberty, but he's trending toward playing in the New Mexico Bowl, currently tagged as probable. This is big because Pavia's mobility and usage as a ball carrier within the Aggies' offense is pivotal to moving the chains and producing scoring drives.
Fresno State's defense is better at defending the pass than the run, allowing four consecutive opponents to finish with at least 177 rushing yards and two touchdowns across their final four regular season games. The Bulldogs have seen their passing attack wane down the stretch as well, scoring four total touchdowns in their last two contests, all coming from the ground game.
The Aggies under head coach Jerry Kill are a stout defense, ranked 36th in opponents points allowed per game at 21.8. Their ability to average 28.7 points per game, behind Pavia's legs and Trent Hudson's hands, will keep New Mexico State in the driver's seat.
The Aggies were one of the best teams against the spread all season, going 11-3 ATS, while Fresno State went 4-8 ATS. Point totals trended in the direction of unders for New Mexico State, going 9-5 in favor of the under, while Fresno State's leaky run defense resulted in an 8-4 record towards the over.
The key number of three is in play in this matchup, with oddsmakers currently giving Fresno State +3.5 ATS. It's a dangerous game to invest in -3.5, as its through a key number, meaning they'd have to win by more than a field goal. Therefore, assuming Pavia suits up and is available for action on Saturday night, let's stake two units on a bit of a juiced line, investing in New Mexico State's moneyline at -166 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
NEW MEXICO STATE VS. FRESNO STATE PICK
- New Mexico State Moneyline (-166) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.