New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Prediction: Can Mikey Keene, Fresno State Pull Upset in New Mexico Bowl?
The New Mexico State Aggies are looking to finish strong against the banged-up Fresno State Bulldogs. Can Mikey Keene and Fresno stun the Aggies in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Saturday afternoon? Joey Ruiz breaks down the matchup and provides his best bet against the spread in New Mexico State vs. Fresno State.
Joey Ruiz - December 16, 2023, 2:14 PM EST
5 minNew Mexico State vs. Fresno State Prediction: Can Mikey Keene, Fresno State Pull Upset in New Mexico Bowl?
New Mexico State has had an incredible season including a win over Auburn in their own house and one of the best seasons in program history. Can the Aggies continue their magic against Fresno State tonight? Let's break it down.
NEW MEXICO STATE VS. FRESNO STATE DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: Saturday, December 16, 2023
- Game Time: 5:45 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN and ESPN+
NEW MEXICO STATE VS. FRESNO STATE ODDS
- Spread: New Mexico State -3.5 (-110). Fresno State +3.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 51.5 (-115), Over 51.5 (-105)
- Moneyline Odds: New Mexico State (-166), Fresno State (+138)
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Prediction
New Mexico State has been America's team this season. They came out of nowhere to win 10 games, and they were an extremely profitable team betting wise against the spread as well. The market has been wrong on them nearly every game this season, and has severely underestimated them at nearly every turn.
Diego Pavia has been one of the main reasons for their drastic turnaround. We saw promising flashes from Pavia last season, and he built on last year's performance by becoming one of the most productive quarterbacks in Conference USA this season. The interesting thing about New Mexico State is that they played one of the easiest schedules in the nation, but still showed up against some of the toughest teams on their schedule.
They beat Western Kentucky on the road by nearly double digits and went into Auburn and embarrassed the Tigers, defeating them 31-10 in a blowout. New Mexico State was exposed a bit by Liberty in both of the games they played against the Flame, as they gave up 49 in the Conference USA title game and allowed 712 total yards. Yes you read that right, 712 total yards. In that game, New Mexico State did not force a single punt and their defense was exposed in a big way. While Pavia and this New Mexico State rushing attack have undergone a complete 180 in record time, their defense is still a huge issue, and Fresno State's downfield passing attack could blow some holes in this Aggies' secondary.
All reports are saying that the Bulldogs star QB, Mikey Keene, is good to go for the game and could put up video game type numbers. I also believe this Fresno State team is due for some positive regression after ending the season on a three-game losing streak to San Diego State, New Mexico, and San Jose State after starting the year 8-1 but two of those games were with backup QB Logan Fife, who is now in the transfer portal.
Mikey Keene is back and ready to produce and I think this Fresno State side could put up some very solid offensive numbers against this swiss cheese Aggies defense. I also had this game lined closer to a pick'em and think the market has swayed a bit too far towards New Mexico State at the current price. With that being said, I am rolling with Fresno State +4 at -112 odds for 1.5 units as one of my most confident college football plays of the day, as I think the Bulldogs have a great chance to win this game outright.
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Pick
Pick: Fresno State +4 -112 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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