USC vs. LSU Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Miller Moss, Trojans Upset Tigers in Las Vegas?

USC vs. LSU Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Miller Moss, Trojans Upset Tigers in Las Vegas?

The USC Trojans will head to Las Vegas for a date with the LSU Tigers to wrap up Week 1 of the college football season. This primetime showdown on Sunday night will feature two teams that lost their superstar quarterbacks in the first two picks of the NFL Draft, and will hope to backfill their rosters with strong recruiting classes.

With Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels off to bigger things in the NFL, the USC Trojans and LSU Tigers are ready for a battle at Allegiant Stadium with their revamped offenses. Garrett Nussmeier will fill Daniels' place under center for the LSU offense, and he will be targeting all new weapons. He has a decent amount of appearances over the past few years due to injuries and opt-outs, and while he's done his job, Nussmeier hasn't quite blown anyone's socks off in the process.

On the other side, Miller Moss steps up for the Trojans after limited experience in the past few seasons. He delivered an outstanding effort in their bowl game last year, which is boosting the confidence level for USC fans as they look for Caleb Williams' successor. He will target electrifying playmaker Zachariah Branch at receiver, and transfer Woody Marks should make an impact in the running game.

LSU opened as a touchdown favorite at -6.5 earlier this summer, and it has been bet down to -4.5 over the last two weeks with steam backing USC. The moneyline odds have LSU at only -200 now, making the Trojans a slight neutral-site underdog at +165 odds. Additionally, the point total has steadily declined to 63.5 after starting at 66.5 earlier this offseason.

NCAAF handicapper Peter Alexis is here to provide his prediction and pick for this opening weekend matchup of USC vs. LSU from Allegiant Stadium on Sunday night.

USC vs. LSU Start Time, Where To Watch, Odds

• Date: Sunday, September 1, 2024
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where to Watch: ABC

USC vs. LSU Odds

• Spread: USC +4.5 (-110), LSU -4.5 (-110)
• Total Odds: O 63.5 (-110), U 63.5 (-110)
• Moneyline Odds: USC (+165), LSU (-200)

USC vs. LSU Injury Report

USC

Questionable: N/A

Out: N/A

LSU

Questionable: WR Chris Hilton

Out: N/A

USC vs. LSU Prediction

What would have been the greatest quarterback duel of the season last year is now a battle of the former backups, and the Trojans and Tigers are ready to showcase their new talents in 2024.

Miller Moss has waited patiently behind Caleb Williams for his big chance at USC, and he now gets it after bursting onto the scene at last year's Holiday Bowl. With Williams sitting out ahead of the draft, Moss threw for nearly 400 yards coupled with six touchdowns as the Trojans manhandled the Louisville Cardinals. Lincoln Riley and the USC staff are counting on Moss to deliver a repeat performance against an athletic yet troubled LSU defense, and he's had all offseason to prepare.

As previously mentioned, the Tigers were originally a touchdown favorite before this line began to crash down. USC is just a 4.5-point underdog and dropping, and there's a shot this line could continue to move throughout the week. Bettors are backing the Trojans in the early going, with 49% of bets on USC plus the points, but 70% of the money is backing them on this spread. There is also sharps getting action on the moneyline, with 19% of the tickets on USC featuring 31% of the money.

Don't be surprised if this line closes down towards a field goal by Sunday night's kickoff in Las Vegas, as Lincoln Riley and the Trojans look to deliver a strong offensive performance against this SEC defense that struggled mightily in 2023. LSU had one of the worst passing defenses in the country a year ago, allowing over 265 yards per game through the air and ranking 121st overall. They also gave up nearly 30 points per game (86th in the nation), something that needs to improve rapidly. They brought in former Missouri defensive coordinator Blake Baker to try to fix these woes, but it won't be an overnight transformation.

The Tigers managed a 10-3 record last year largely thanks to Jayden Daniels' incredible offensive performances en route to the Heisman trophy. With his stellar talent gone, along with top receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., there will be some growing pains to replace their production and find the chemistry.

We saw the same thing with Florida State in Week 0 in Ireland. They had an incredible regular season in 2023 filled with future NFL stars running all over the field, and were forced to replace that with bright young talents and transfers. However, it didn't immediately translate to success as they were upset by Georgia Tech and couldn't quite find their rhythm. LSU may face a similar fate in this one as they try to put the pieces together, which takes time in this transfer portal era.

In a game that features talented teams but many question marks and new unknowns, we are going to back the team getting the points. There is a high total in the 60's here, and we don't expect a ton of amazing defense to be played by either squad after they were both shredded through the air last year and gave up a boatload of points to conference opponents. If this turns into a full shootout, the extra points may play a big role down the stretch as USC looks to keep it close or pull the upset. Lincoln Riley is a creative offensive mind, and will have USC ready to find the gaps in this inexperienced LSU group that is replacing too many assets on both sides of the ball.

USC vs. LSU Pick

Pick: USC +4.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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