The American Express Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hadwin, Van Rooyen in California

The American Express Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Hadwin, Van Rooyen in California

We couldn't back up our +2000 winner at The Sentry last week at the Sony Open, but J.T. Poston propelled up the leaderboard in the final round to finish 6th and give us a good result.

Now we head to California for the first event of the 2024 Californian swing, as a decent field gets together for The American Express. These full-field, multi-course events can cause headaches for many, but they also present opportunities.

Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele are all in the field which certainly helps boost the numbers further down the board, but can they all be beaten?

We'd like to think if our picks get the better of this trio, that they would have a great chance of winning the tournament, and we will look at those +4000 and bigger that could do just that.

CLICK HERE to find the best odds for each golfer in this week's American Express field.

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What Skill Set is Required to Win The American Express?

Adam Long won this event in 2019 ranking 30th or worse in all SG metrics other than putting, and even then he didn't even lead the field there, ranking 9th. These numbers, however, will be slightly skewed as only the Stadium Course, which is used for one of the first three rounds, and the final round, has Strokes Gained data.

Still, let's look at what has been important on the event's main course, over the past few years.

SG Approach - Yep, you guessed it, SG Approach is our leading identifier here. Since Adam Long won ranking 43rd in that department, no winner here has ranked worse than 8th in this category for the week. This is no surprise given the number of opportunities you need to set up to win.

Birdie or Better Percentage - You will need to go extremely low to win here, so low, that if you don't get to -23, you probably don't need to worry about showing up. That is the highest winning score here since Hudson Swafford won at -20 in 2017. Rahm got to -27 last year, and Patrick Reed to -28 when he won in 2014.

Birdie or Better Rate < 125 Yards - You are going to have plenty of shots inside 125 yards this week, and you better make them count to keep on track to the winning score here. There will be plenty of approaches from 75-100 yards as well, but inside 125 covers us well. 150-175 is also a range to consider.

The American Express Betting Trends

Here are some select betting trends for The American Express. With the course rotation changing over the years, and the volatility of winners here, this might not be the week to get too caught up in these though.

Winning Form Helpful- 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least once on the PGA Tour before winning here. Hudson Swafford and Adam Long were the exceptions.

Event History Key - 11 of the last 12 winners had played in this event at least once before, and guess who... Adam Long was the trendbuster again.

Sony Open Start a Plus - 8 of the last 12 winners had played the Sony Open the week before winning here. Jon Rahm has won twice here despite not playing the Sony but has finished 1st and 2nd at The Sentry the start before winning here. Patrick Reed (Who played The Sentry) and Bill Haas (Who didn't play The Sentry) are the other two exceptions. Overall, a start in Hawaii to dust off the cobwebs has been key.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win The American Express?

Here are the winning odds for every winner at The American Express since it became a 72-hole event in 2012.

2023 - Jon Rahm (+650)

2022 - Hudson Swafford (+15000)

2021 - Si Woo Kim (+5500)

2020 - Andrew Landry (+20000)

2019 - Adam Long (+60000)

2018 - Jon Rahm (+1000)

2017 - Hudson Swafford (+6600)

2016 - Jason Dufner (+4000)

2015 - Bill Haas (+3000)

2014 - Patrick Reed (+13500)

2013 - Brian Gay (+8000)

2012 - Mark Wilson (+12500)

Clearly this is an event where longshots have prospered. With three courses and a low-scoring nature, it is no surprise we have seen some 'random' results over the years.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 American Express

Here are my favorite picks at +4000 or bigger for The American Express in 2024.

Taylor Montgomery +5000 (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Montgomery With FanDuel)

Taylor Montgomery has found some form again recently, finishing T8 at the RSM Classic to close out 2023. He then went on to start 2024 with a T13 finish at the Sony Open.

Montgomery, often known as a strong putter, actually relied on his approach play in his past two starts, and his T13 finish last week was charged by ranking 2nd in SG Approach.

2nd after round 1 and 4th after round 2 last week, Montgomery was in contention over the first two rounds in Hawaii, and this week he can go all the way, at an event he played well at on debut in 2023.

2nd after round one, and sitting 5th after both Saturday and Sunday last year, Montgomery was in the mix for most of the week, and he can lean on that effort last year to compete again this week.

Adam Hadwin +6000 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Hadwin With FanDuel)

Adam Hadwin loves this event, highlighted by three top 3 finishes and a 6th here across his first five starts.

In recent years, his form has cooled off here, but even then he has finished 32nd, 25th, and 18th, which suggests even when he's not been at it, he's capable of getting around here comfortably.

Hadwin ended 2023 finishing 16th at the FedEx St Jude in the playoffs, and then 2nd at the Shriners Open. He picked up where he left off with a decent start at The Sentry as well where he finished T14.

I am not too concerned about last week's missed cut, as he was 18th after round 1 and ranked 7th on Thursday in SG Approach, suggesting he was playing well enough. He's also not relied on a good start at the Sony Open, to play well here. He's either played pretty poorly or not played at all before contending here.

Simply put, Adam Hadwin is playing plenty well enough to contend and even win at an event he obviously loves.

Akshay Bhatia +6600 (BetMGM) (Bet $5, Get $158 Instantly on Bhatia With BetMGM)

Akshay Bhatia is still very green, and that is to be expected at 21 years of age. That being said, he is already a winner on the PGA Tour, at the Barracuda Championship, another low-scoring event in California.

Sure, Bhatia has played here twice already, missing the cut on both occasions, but those starts came in 2020 and 2021 when he was 17 and 18 years old. He's not played here for two years, and I think he's learned enough in two years to contend here.

A winner already on both the Korn Ferry and the PGA Tour, on top of further 2nd and 4th place finishes on the PGA Tour, Bhatia is clearly not scared to compete in this sort of field.

Bhatia missed his next two cuts after his win, but since then has reeled off 8 straight weekends, which is an awesome effort for someone who previously lacked consistency if not talent.

He has finished inside the top 14 in back-to-back weeks in Hawaii and was 2nd going into the final round at The Sentry. Add to that a 64 last week and a solid effort overall, and he has clearly started 2024 confidently.

Bhatia was born in California, won there in 2023, and has also finished T9 at the Safeway Open (now the Fortinet) so he should feel at home here, now that he's more experienced.

At +6600 I will take the potential upside on what could well be an elite player in the making.

Erik Van Rooyen +11000 (FanDuel) (Bet $5, Win $150 Guaranteed on Van Rooyen With FanDuel)

Erik Van Rooyen bounced back with a tremendous year in 2023, as he really found his form in the second half of the season.

It all started with a T6 in an opposite-field event, at the Barracuda Championship, and from there he looked capable of winning multiple times.

8th at the Omega European Masters on the DP World Tour, T16 at the Irish Open as week later, he then racked off three more top 20s in a row on the PGA Tour before winning the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico.

Van Rooyen finished 6th here last year, largely thanks to a final round 62 on the Stadium Course, and it is his ability to go low that will always draw people to him in these events.

Since winning in Mexico, Van Rooyen finished 32nd in South Africa, and in Hawaii, he's finished 22nd and 52nd to start the year. At The Sentry, Van Rooyen shot two rounds of 65, and then last week, Van Rooyen was slowed down by a cold putter, as he ranked 10th in Approach and 27th in Tee to Green.

I like Van Rooyen at triple-digit odds this week.