2024 American Express Top First Rounder Leaders Picks & Predictions

American Express First-Round Leader Predictions

While the PGA Tour might be heading back to the continental United States this weekend, following two weeks in Hawaii, the weather will be about the same as clear skies and light breezes are in the forecast. That should spell plenty of red scores when you add in the fact many of the world’s best will be teeing it up for the first time this season including Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler. 

Unlike most weeks, the American Express is held over three courses throughout the weekend, with the cut coming on Saturday (instead of Friday). With the first three days held at a rotation of the Pete Dye Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club, the final round will be played again on the Stadium Course. 

All three of the courses are short par 72s, with the max being the Stadium Course coming in just under 7,200 yards. Featuring soft Bermudagrass greens throughout, like we have seen the past few weeks, expect the winning score to be well into the double digits. 

With the most stacked field of players thus far this season on hand this week in La Quinta, let's take a closer look at three guys I expect to go low out of the gates Thursday at the 2024 American Express. 

The American Express Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: January 18 - 24, 2024
• Opening Tee Time: 11:30 am
• Where to Watch: Golf Channel, Peacock, ESPN+

American Express Picks

Xander Schauffele +1100 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

The second-place finisher of the TOUR Championship back in August, Schauffele makes his 2024 debut on the mainland following the best season of his career. In total, he finished top 10 on eleven different occasions, with his success on the greens being a major part of his success. 

He has already had some success thus far in 2024, finishing 10th place at The Sentry two weeks ago in Kapalua. Expect the current #5 player in the world to take advantage of a generally weak field and come out firing on Thursday.

Justin Thomas +1400 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

After a slow 2022 and the start of 2023, JT roared down the stretch of 2023, finishing T3 at the Hero World Challenge and T4 on a DP World Tour event (Nedbank Golf Challenge) to regain his swag. Now #28 in the world, the confidence is back in Thomas’ game and he should no doubt be in the mix in this one. 

Chris Kirk +2500 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Kirk started off his 2024 PGA Tour season with a bang, winning The Sentry two weeks ago for the second win in the past 12 months. With the win, he jumped all the way to #23 in the world, following the success he ended in 2023 in statement fashion.

In total in 2023, Kirk finished top 10 four times including a win, and I like for him to continue his success into 2024. Approaching 40, Kirk is seemingly in the prime of his career, and with seven wins on Tour to date, should have all the confidence he needs for more success here in La Quinta. 

American Express Predictions

• Xander Schauffele +1100 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
• Justin Thomas +1400 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
• Chris Kirk +2500 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

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