Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Day, Bradley at Bay Hill

Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers and Value Picks: Bet on Day, Bradley at Bay Hill

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is another one of the PGA Tour's Signature Events, meaning we are looking at another limited field.

Unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy lead the way on the Arnold Palmer odds board this week, which means we are able to grab some value further down the board.

Both McIlroy and Scheffler have won this event, but last year we saw Kirk Kitayama win when it was a Designated Event, which gives us hope as we look for a sleeper and value pick at +4000 and bigger this week.

Despite being a reduced field, there are still plenty of options at +4000 and bigger, and we are going to look at identifying our favorites at Bay Hill.

When it comes to making your golf picks this week, try to find the blend between course and current form, as generally speaking winners here have come into the event and good shape, and with experience of the course. Kitayama broke that trend last year, winning on debut, but we will find that others needed a look first.

Before we get into the Sleepers and Value Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, check out the new FanDuel Sportsbook promotion, where new users can claim an epic bonus betting on golf this week. With the FanDuel promo code, you will bet $5, win $150 if your first bet wins.

What Skill Set is Required to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

This is a golf course that demands plenty off the tee, and while you will want to find a player hitting plenty of greens, you should look for a player who is Scrambling well, as that is big around this course.

SG Tee to Green - The last five winners of this event have ranked 14th or better in SG Tee to Green the week they won, while two of the last five winners have led the field in SG Off the Tee as well. Driving it well will set the foundations here.

Bermuda Putting - Just like last week, Bermuda Putting will be key this week. Florida golf suits certain players better than others, and whether that is the potentially breezy conditions or typically tougher conditions, you can also count on the Bermuda Greens being a factor.

Par 4 Scoring - Each of the last five winners have ranked 5th or better in Par 4 Scoring, with Kurt Kitayama and Francesco Molinari both leading the field in this department. If you shoot under par on the Par 4s here, you should be in great shape.

Do Sleepers and Value Picks Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

Here are the last 12 winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and their starting odds.

2023 - Kurt Kitayama (+20000)

2022 - Scottie Scheffler (+2000)

2021 - Bryson DeChambeau (+1300)

2020 - Tyrrell Hatton (+5500)

2019 - Francesco Molinari (+3300)

2018 - Rory McIlroy (+2000)

2017 - Marc Leishman (+10000)

2016 - Jason Day (+1400)

2015 - Matt Every (+30000)

2014 - Matt Every (+6600)

2013 - Tiger Woods (+300)

2012 - Tiger Woods (+800)

Marc Leishman, Matt Every, and Kurt Kitayama have all won at triple-digit odds since 2012, with Matt Every's first win and Tyrrell Hatton's win in 2020 both also qualifying as sleeper and value picks the week they won.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Trends

Looking at the last 12 years at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, we have identified the following betting trends.

World Rankings an Indicator? - In a year of longshot winners, this might not be relevant this week, but of the last 12 winners, 9 of them were ranked 46th or higher in the World Rankings, including last year's shock winner, Kurt Kitayama. Matt Every broke the trend twice, as did Marc Leishman.

Previous Career Wins - All 12 winners had already won in their careers before winning here, and 10 of them had won 3 or more times. Kurt Kitayama and Tyrrell Hatton got their one and so far only PGA Tour wins here, but had both won on the DP World Tour before winning here. Matt Every had won on the Korn Ferry Tour before winning here, but not for five years. You can get your first PGA Tour win here, but winning elsewhere first looks like a prerequisite.

Young Man's Course? - Of the last 12 winners, 8 of them have been 32 years old or younger when they won. Fiver of the last six winners have been 30 or younger, with Molinari the exception at 36.

Phoenix Open Correlation - We highlighted the Sony Open in this section last week, and I think it is fair to apply that to Austin Eckroat who finished 12th there last year before he won at the Cognizant Classic today. With that in mind, here's a link I found interesting. One thing the more surprising winners here had in common was their performances at the Phoenix Open. Kurt Kitayama finished T8 there this year, a year after finishing inside the top 25 on debut despite a poor opening round. Tyrrell Hatton has finished 6th in Phoenix, Matt Every has two top 10s there, and Martin Laird has finished 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 9th at TPC Scottsdale and won here. Factor in Scheffler is a two-time winner there and a winner here, as is Vijay Singh and there seems to be enough crossover. More recently, the Scottish Open has thrown up plenty of correlation, with Rory winning both, Kurt Kitayama winning here and finishing 2nd at the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, and both Matt Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood regularly impress at both.

Sleepers and Value Picks for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Here are my four picks for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, all of which are +4000 and bigger.

Jason Day +4000 (Bet365)

Jason Day is probably going to be on my betting card a decent amount this year unless he finally gets to a number that feels un-bettable. All the time he qualifies for this 40-1 and bigger article though, he's going to get a second look.

That is particularly true at a course where he has won once and finished in the top 10 again since.

The Aussie ranks 3rd in Par 4 Scoring Average this season, a stat that could be incredibly important this week, and while not all Par 4s are created equally, it's good that he's playing those holes well coming to Bay Hill.

Add to the equation the fact that he's ranked 14th in SG Approach in each of his past two outings and top 10 in both of the starts in SG Tee to Green, it is fair to say Day is finding his way again. He isn't gaining as many strokes Off the Tee as I would like if I am being really fussy, but I think he's been more than fairly to compensate.

3 Top 10 finishes in 5 starts so far in 2024, without his best stuff off the tee suggests that there is scope for improvement for Day, and I think he can find it here in Florida.

Corey Conners +6000 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners is slowly returning to form, and it has come at the perfect time as he returns to one of his favorite courses on the PGA Tour. After missing his first two cuts here, the Canadian has since finished 3rd, 11th, and 21st, and even when 21st last year, he was 3rd going into the weekend.

His results might not say as much, but after making 13 cuts in a row, and his Approach and Tee to Green improving over his past two starts, I think it is time to target this elite ball striker, who is capable of winning in this type of field.

Conners ranked 7th and 17th in SG Approach over the past two starts and 12th and 19th in SG Tee to Green, so there's every reason to believe the Canadian is peaking at the right time.

At +6000 you are taking a shot at not only one of the better ball strikers of recent years but a player who excels at this golf course as well, so it feels like a good time for Conners to find his 3rd PGA Tour win.

Keegan Bradley +6600 (BetRivers)

Keegan Bradley is a consistent threat on the PGA Tour, having won 6 times on the PGA Tour, and with two play-off losses on his record as well, it could have been an even better career.

Bradley has played Bay Hill brilliantly over the years, making 12 cuts in a row since missing the cut on debut in 2011. His next two starts were 3rd and 2nd place finishes, and he's finished 10th, 11th, and 10th in his last three starts here as well, so he's clearly a fan of this event.

Bradley has already been in contention this year, losing in a playoff to Grayson Murray at the Sony Open, and now he can get back in the Winner's Circle for a second year in a row.

11th at Pebble Beach since missing out at Bay Hill, Bradley has shown signs of life in limited starts this season and will look forward to this part of the season, starting with the API.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9000 (Bet365)

It has taken me a while, but I have finally come around on Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who I still think is being underrated in the market, based on his current Ball Striking form.

The South African missed his second cut of the year last week, but he was close to making the weekend again, and his approach play was still fairly strong. He did lose strokes off the tee and around the greens which is not ideal, but I am hoping that is course-dependent.

Since playing regularly on the PGA Tour, Bay Hill has been something of a safe place for Bezuidenhout, who has finished 18th, 7th, and 20th in his first three starts here. He did miss the cut last year, but he's playing more consistent golf right now, and certainly hitting the ball a lot better.

Bezuidenhout ranks 3rd in SG Approach this season, and while there is a concern it might be a bit too difficult for him off the tee here to really contend, I think he can play the course his way and succeed. At 90/1 I am more than happy to find out, given his iron and wedge play in 2024.