Don’t just stop at the eye-watering 15/4 available on Morecambe to win the game.
Only 1,098 turned up at the Globe Arena to witness the Lancashire minnows climb up to seventh on a big night of Champions League action but Bentley is on safe ground calling out the missing 500. After 13 years loyal service, the Liverpudlian is virtually bulletproof in these parts and a positive reaction should be expected for a far more glamorous affair against the O’s.
The game against Mark Yates’ men was a slow burner but goals from Kevin Ellison, Shaun Miller and Paul Mullin put them in command. On a night when seven-goal Tom Barkhuizen stayed out of the limelight, it offered a fine demonstration of the attacking options available to Bentley and why his men currently top the overall League Two scoring charts by six clear goals.
So don’t just stop at the eye-watering 15/4 available on Morecambe to win the game, consider also the 7/1 about the home side netting over 2.5 goals. The Shrimps have managed the feat in each of their last four league outings, netting 14 in total, all but one of them coming from that quartet of forwards.
Orient are streets ahead in the performance data, which partly explains the absurdity of their odds-on quote. They boast a shot ratio of 59.7 per cent (versus 47.4) but they are nowhere near as prolific in converting that dominance into points. Ian Hendon’s men have only triumphed once in their last ten matches and haven’t kept a clean sheet since August.
Meanwhile, there’s not much else to shout about on a trappy weekend coupon but there would appear to be some value in backing under 1.5 goals in the Championship clash between Huddersfield and Derby at 11/4. My 12-match ratings have the total goals expectancy at 1.92, more than half a goal less than the current market line.
Results don’t quite reveal the extent to which goalmouth action has been sparse in games involving these sides but 11 draws in 24 matches combined give you some indication of a mutual safety-first approach. Derby goalless stalemate at Blackburn in midweek was their third of the campaign, while Huddersfield head into this on the back of clean sheets against Ipswich and MK Dons.
For more information about Mike Holden’s shot-based ratings system, follow this link.