The plane carrying Celta Vigo players from Santiago to Madrid was struck by lightning on Friday and it might not be the only nasty surprise they encounter this weekend. Take the 2/1 available on Getafe building on their good home record by putting Eduardo Berizzo’s men to the sword.
The minnows from the outskirts of the capital are currently on a run of five straight defeats and they’ve never lost six games consecutively since winning promotion to the Primera 12 years ago. They were well-beaten at Levante last weekend but, coming on the road, that was nothing unusual. Getafe have now lost nine of their 13 away games, conceding three goals or more in seven of them.
It’s a different story at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez, though. Fran Escriba’s men are well accustomed to the eeriness of a 27,000-capacity stadium that attracts fewer than 6,000 fans and they've seemingly developed ways to motivate themselves, comfortable in the knowledge that the opposition are liable to be deflated by the whole experience.
In five previous visits, Celta have never won at this ground. In the past three seasons, since they clinched promotion back to the top flight, the Galician club have gone down 3-0, 3-1 and 2-1, and a run of four straight away defeats since the winter break offers scant evidence to suggest they will end their hoodoo at this venue.
My 16-match and 24-match ratings, based on this season's shot data, both make Getafe clear favourites, yet the layers have it the other way around. Given the level of disparity, combined with a higher goals expectancy than the market, a secondary wager on Getafe to clear the one-goal handicap at 11/2 is also recommended. By standard conversion, my ratings make it about 7/2.
Villarreal, Espanyol, Las Palmas and Levante have already been beaten by two clear goals at the Coliseum this term and Celta appear to be a team that’s only too quick to give up the ghost when they believe it’s not their day. Seven of their nine defeats this term have been by two clear goals, while on three of those occasions they've been beaten by three or more.
Click here for more information about Mike Holden’s shot-based ratings system