Burton v Wigan
Nigel Clough wasn’t around when Albion edged out the Latics 1-0 in the reverse fixture last November but it’s a result from which his players can take inspiration. And the numbers certainly support the case for a home win. Despite their recent troubles, my 24-match ratings make Burton 13/8 favourites once home advantage has been factored into the equation.
Walsall v Swindon
Jon Whitney’s men needed a disputed late winner to edge out Southend at the weekend, the latest in a long line of unconvincing displays at the Banks’s Stadium. The Saddlers’ home record in 2016 reads W2 D2 L4 and the two wins both came courtesy of last-gasp efforts. All things considered, the 11/2 about Swindon is worth chancing.
Hartlepool v Accrington
Stanley have had a tremendous season up to this point, serving up untold profits for shot data followers in the process, but a promotion run-in is alien territory for John Coleman’s men. Saturday’s 2-2 draw with local rivals Morecambe might not be their only wobble on the run-in. Uncharacteristically, the Reds were over-run the final 30 minutes against the Shrimps.
Wycombe v Yeovil
The Glovers went down 2-1 at Bristol Rovers at the weekend but their defensive improvement under Darren Way, combined with Wycombe’s own unrivalled brand of uncertainty avoidance, means this game produces a total goals expectancy of just 1.59 on my ratings. By standard conversion, the Yeovil clean sheet should be no bigger than 7/4 and no goalscorer shows up at just 4/1.