Sheffield United v Barnsley
The Blades have taken ten points from the last possible 12 since their televised defeat at Roots Hall, although games against Walsall, Gillingham, Chesterfield and Shrewsbury aren’t quite as impressive as they first appear. Based on shot data, those are four of the six most over-performing sides in the division.
Barnsley, by contrast, are League One’s most dominant team with a formidable 63 per cent shot ratio over 24 matches and though the Tykes haven’t quite cemented their place in the top six just yet, they can put down a serious marker and eliminate a rival in the process by winning in business-like fashion here. The Barnsley 2-0 correct score is over-priced at 16/1.
Bury v Millwall
The Lancashire outfit have shaped up since shipping six goals at Coventry back in February, shutting out the likes of Sheffield United, Bradford and Barnsley at Gigg Lane. Repeating that particular trick against the least creative attack in the top half of the division is no bigger than an 11/5 shot on my tissue.
Portsmouth v Wycombe
In fairness, the Chairboys are punching above their weight and simply don’t have the personnel to take games to their opponents, so smash-and-grab will continue to be favoured modus operandi and under 1.5 goals at 9/4 represents decent value in this game, while you wouldn’t rule out Paul Cook’s men settling for the 0-0 and cementing their position on the back of two defeats.
Yeovil v Northampton
The Cobblers have drawn seven of their last 11 and played out a goalless affair at Exeter last weekend, so there’s value also to be found in the 9/1 quote about under 0.5 goals. Half of Yeovil’s eight clean sheets have been 0-0 draws, while the other five were 1-0 wins, three of them nicked against bottom-eight opposition.