Wolves v Sheffield Wednesday

Carlos Carvalhal has let it be known that he plans to make wholesale changes for the trip to Molineux, with potentially seven key players rested ahead of the play-offs. But don’t let that put you backing the Owls to keep a clean sheet at 3/1 or better. The quality of the starting 11 could be much better than the market seems to realise.

The Portuguese was big on rotation when guiding Wednesday to the Capital One Cup quarter-finals earlier this season, a run that included win-to-nil victories over Newcastle and Arsenal, while other Tuesday night games at Bolton and QPR delivered 0-0 draws when Carvalhal shuffled his pack in order to negotiate his way through a heavy Autumn schedule.

Wolves have fired a blank in each of their past four home matches, subjecting their fans to successive 0-0 draws against Birmingham, Ipswich, Blackburn and Rotherham. Over the course of their last 11 home games, going back to the middle of January, the Old Gold have averaged fewer than three shots on target per match.

Kenny Jackett deserves some credit for keeping Wanderers out of harm’s way throughout a turbulent campaign, but that’s easy to say as a neutral. His risk-averse approach has been mind-numbing for the supporters. With over 4,000 travelling Wednesday fans heading to Molineux, Carvalhal knows he has a responsibility to take the game seriously and that probably means keeping it tight.
Sheffield Wednesday clean sheet - 1pt @ 11/4

Oxford v Wycombe

The fixture list has played a cruel trick on Oxford by sending Wycombe to the Kassam on the final day. The Chairboys might be out of the play-off picture on the back of just one win in 10 matches, but they’ve shown themselves to be standard top-seven material over the past 91 matches and you can rest assured they will be approaching this local derby like… well, a local derby.

For Oxford, the pressure of holding out for automatic promotion must be intense with Acrington going great guns ahead of them (11 games, W8 D3 L0) and Bristol Rovers (13 games, W10 D2 L1) breathing down their necks. The Yellows haven’t been nearly as convincing, dropping points in routine home games against the likes of Leyton Orient, Stevenage and Luton.

So now it all comes to a head against stubborn local rivals making no secret of the fact that they want Oxford to remain in the basement with them next season. So long as they don’t concede twice, Gareth Ainsworth’s men will finish the season having conceded the fewest away goals for the second season running.

All things considered, the 9/1 available on the away win has to be chanced and given how much the Chairboys like to play within the realms of fine margins - 21 of the last 24 matches have finished under 2.5 goals - it’s also worth taking silly prices about the Wycombe 1-0 and Wycombe 2-0 correct scores at 25/1 and 70/1 respectively.
Wycombe to win - 1pt @ 9/1
Wycombe to win 1-0 - 0.5pts @ 25/1
Wycombe 2-0 - 0.5pts @ 70/1