Derby v Newcastle - Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports 1
Goals have been in short supply whenever Derby have taken to the field this season. The Rams have netted just three time in seven outings, but they’ve only conceded four times themselves, a fact that has been largely overlooked in the inquest that surrounded their 1-0 defeat at Burton last time out.
After two weeks stewing on that embarrassment at the Pirelli, a response of some sort is only to be expected, although quite what lies within their capabilities against a superior Newcastle side is up for debate. James Wilson, Matej Vydra and Ikechi Anya have all been added to the squad and could be included in the starting 11 here.
However, it’s hard to look beyond more of the same. The shot data tells its own story. Newcastle, under Rafa Benitez, also err on the side of caution and both teams reside in the bottom six of the division for expected goals, both for and against combined, although Newcastle’s paltry figure of 2.13 dwarfs the laughable 1.40 generated by Nigel Pearson’s men.
The sample size is small, of course. But when confronted with those numbers, it seems rude not to take perfectly reasonable prices about several outcomes that all amount to the same thing. The draw is available at 23/10, under 1.5 goals can be backed at 2/1 and under 0.5 goals is 8/1.
Take the lot. Once the obligatory early punches have been thrown, the 0-0 might well suit both sides.