Blackburn v Rotherham - Saturday 15:00
If you needed proof that Blackburn are essentially an 'overs' team, look no further than their approach to Tuesday’s six-pointer at Leeds. Amid rising disconentent around Elland Road, and pressure mounting heavily on Garry Monk, Rovers made no attempt to play the conditions and frustrate their hosts, choosing instead to treat the game like any other.
An open contest served only to motivate the crowd and Leeds grew in confidence as the contest wore on, scoring a late winner shortly after being pegged back by Marvin Emnes’ first goal in Rovers’ colours on 77 minutes. Now there’s mileage in going for going for a glut of late goals again when Ewood Park welcomes the division’s leakiest defence.
Rotherham have conceded at least twice in all but one of their seven matches, shipping ten goals in just three games on the road. And it’s after the break when most damage is done, when their passing game begins to break down and opponents catch them out of shape time and time again. In eight matches, the Millers have conceded 14 second-half goals.
With my ratings generating a total goals expectancy of 2.58, which is 0.2 goals higher than the market, there’s a temptation to play over 2.5 total goals at 11/10, or over 3.5 goals at nearly 3/1, but the standout bet based on the patterns established up to now is the 17/4 available on over 2.5 second half goalsover 2.5 second half goals. Expect a basketball match after the break.