Ipswich v Brighton - Tuesday 19:45
The evidence against them is mounting, but the jury’s still out on Ipswich this season. It’s not a guilty verdict just yet. The Tractor Boys have looked lifeless for the most part and a promotion charge seems unlikely but you write Mick McCarthy off at your peril. His outstanding track record at this level buys him more time than most.
McCarthy looked thoroughly fed-up in the wake of Saturday’s 1-0 defeat to Leeds and concerns are growing that his days at Portman Road might be numbered, that this is a relationship going nowhere. But then you look at the respective shot data of these two teams and you can only conclude that 11/4 about the home win is a big price here. Too big.
It’s purely a matter of scale. We know Brighton are the real deal in this season’s promotion race - level or thereabouts with Norwich, just behind big-spending Newcastle - and we can safely their defeats will be in single figures come the end of the campaign. But this is the Championship, and few come close to McCarthy’s record of negotiating quick turnarounds.
Since the start of the 2012/13 season, Ipswich boast a remarkable W20 D8 L4 record in Tuesday night fixtures (2.13 points per game), so this looks like the ideal acid test of whether McCarthy’s powers are beginning to fail him. The Ipswich/Ipswich half time/full time option at 6/1 is the best supplemtary wager. Brighton’s last ten defeats have all been suffered this way.