Fulham v Huddersfield - Saturday 15:00

Fulham haven’t won at home since beating Newcastle on the opening weekend and striker Chris Martin is calling on them to be more streetwise at Craven Cottage. The Londoners are second in the possession charts (56.9 per cent) with the best pass success rate (84.5 per cent) but too often they get punished on occasions when moves breaks down on the edge of the opposition penalty box.

On the road, Fulham have taken 12 points from seven matches, mainly because the onus is on the opposition to show a bit more urgency going forward and they can afford to be more patient. In those scenarios, flooding the middle of the park and keeping the ball for prolonged spells serves only to agitate the home crowd and create anxiety.

David Wagner is under no illusions about the mechanics and he’s made no secret in the build-up of his belief that the key to success for Huddersfield is to be totally switched-on defensively for 90 minutes. He has ideas on ways to hurt the Cottagers but his respect for their ball retention ability is obvious.

All of which points towards a low-scoring encounter and the respective shot data certainly supports a wager on under 1.5 goals at 11/4. My ratings have the total goals expectancy at 2.03, some 0.46 fewer than the market. By standard conversion, that means the no goalscorer bet should be a little over 6/1 but you can get 10/1 with a few firms. Snap it up.

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Under 1.5 goals - 1pt @ 11/4
No goalscorer - 1pt @ 10/1