Preston v Wolves - Saturday 15:00

Only Paul Lambert knows what went through his head as he watched his new Wolves players disintegrate on television in their last outing at home to Derby. The Old Gold were at sixes and sevens from the get-go against the Rams and found themselves 2-0 down inside 15 minutes. The fact it remained only two at the interval was more luck than judgement.

So we can only assume that tightening up the rearguard has been Lambert’s number one priority over the international break with Wanderers now nine games down the line without a clean sheet since their sensational win at Newcastle. However, based on the shot data, there’s value in the prices about Preston compounding their misery here.

It has taken North End a while to come to terms with the departure of Joe Garner to Rangers but they’ve looked increasingly threatening in recent weeks, scoring 14 goals in their last seven matches, including three-goal hauls in recent wins over Huddersfield and Rotherham. On that basis, take the 11/2 available over 2.5 home team goals here.

It would be easy to assume that Wolves cannot possibly replicate the calamity of their first-half performance against Derby but the pricing of this game is based heavily on reputation and an automatic assumption that Lambert’s impact will be immediate. According to my ratings, the Lilywhites are no bigger than 3/1 to net three or more goals.

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Over 2.5 Preston goals - 1pt @ 11/2