There isn't a great deal between these sides on paper so take the value and back Swindon.
Oxford v Swindon - Saturday 15:00
Late goals have been papering over the cracks for Oxford lately. Liam Sercombe netted a barely-deserved 88th-minute winner against Rochdale last weekend, just as Chris Maguire had done from the penalty spot in stoppage time of the previous home game against Peterborough. Without those two goals, they would be second from bottom.
That's not where Oxford belong, there's a big enough body of evidence to suggest they could be pushing towards the top of the table once the campaign settles down. By Michael Appleton's own admission, the middle third of the season, between November and February, is when you're likely to see the best of the Yellows.
So Appleton is pleased to see his players nicking points that provide a bigger platform but the undertones aren't what you want to cope with the pressure of a local derby, starting as odds-on favourites in front of a packed Kassam. Take the 7/2 available on Swindon to win.
The Robins are seasoned League One campaigners - they've spent 14 of the last 16 seasons at this level, whereas as Oxford have spent the last 14 of the last 15 years operating below them - yet the visitors come into this game cast as clear underdogs and can approach it with much greater freedom. On the evidence of the past month, there’s not a great deal between them.