Bury v Bolton - Monday 19:45, Sky Sports 1
Bolton haven’t won a league game at Bury for 87 years (14 visits) but let’s just stick with 2016 for the biggest pointer ahead of this Lancashire derby. Managers David Flitcroft and Phil Parkinson locked horns three times earlier this year and all three matches finished 0-0, so take the 9/1 available on no goalscorer and cover it with a bet on under 1.5 goals at 13/5.
Parkinson, of course, was in charge at Bradford then and probably considers himself better stocked with match-winning talent at the Macron. But the Bantams were favourites each time and they were unable to overcome the stubborn resistance of Flitcroft’s men, the Shakers dumping them out of a marathon FA Cup tie on penalties having played most of the replay with ten men.
Sometimes it just happens that one manager has another’s number and Flitcroft teams generally stand up well to the demands of Parkinson’s direct approach, pace and guile is normally their undoing. Without Tom Pope, though, the home side do struggle to get their attacking game together and James Vaughan probably won’t get much change out of Mark Beevers and David Wheater.
The tactical battle aside, this does have the makings of a low-scoring encounter. Bolton come into the game on the back of four clean sheets. Their last eight matches have produced a grand total of ten goals, half of which have arrived after the 75th minute. The shot data after 14 rounds sets the total goals expectancy at 2.17, around 0.3 goals fewer than the market.