Notts County v Grimsby - Saturday 15:00
Nearly 2,000 Grimsby fans will make the trip to Meadow Lane after watching their side put five goals past Stevenage last weekend but that huge following is indicative of the market move towards them ahead of this game. The Mariners were sensational against Darren Sarll’s men, but it’s just not in the nature of teams at this level to maintain those standards.
As such, there’s value in the 13/8 about Notts County building on their low-key progress under John Sheridan with a fourth straight win. The Magpies have beaten Hartlepool (twice) and Crawley in the past fortnight. The performances weren’t as scintillating, but winning ugly is precisely what John Sheridan means when he talks about changing the losing culture.
Based on the evidence to date, games involving Grimsby have a particularly high goals expectancy, so the 25/1 available on the Notts County 3-1 correct score has standout appeal. Both teams have scored in each of the last eight league encounters involving either side, and all seven games involving the Mariners - in all competitions - have averaged exactly four goals.
It’s amazing the effect that one great performance can have on general perceptions. If it wasn’t for the 5-2 win against Stevenage - relegation fodder by my reckoning - Grimsby would be coming into this game on the back of five straight defeats. In that scenario, would this really be an each-of-two contest?