Portsmouth v Crawley - Saturday 15:00
If you only saw the shot data, you'd assume Portsmouth were already tearing League Two to shreds. But having revamped an already-luxurious squad over the summer, Paul Cook is still coming up short of scratch. The season might only be five games old but bolted on to the back of 48 games last term, Pompey’s inability to make their dominance count is an ongoing concern.
Back-to-back wins over Colchester (2-0) and Exeter (1-0) are showing the way - don't concede the first goal and you'll invariably be fine. It's high uncertainty avoidance from Cook, taking it slow and steady. A shot ratio in the sixties is standard for Portsmouth, and hard to improve upon, so the focus now is on making fewer mistakes.
Most teams just pack bodies behind the ball whenever they come up against Pompey, especially at Fratton Park, and it's particularly ominous for spectators that Crawley visit this weekend. The Red Devils are reinventing themselves under Dermot Drummy and the second-lowest total goals expectancy in the division (2.12) tells you most of what you need to know about how they set up.
If Pompey find a breakthrough, they could win this one at a canter. But Crawley will be putting most of their focus into keeping a clean sheet and there’s value in the 10/3 about the game producing under 1.5 goals. The no goalscorer bet at 12/1 should also be considered. That’s ultimately what Crawley will be setting out to achieve.