Exeter v Plymouth - Saturday 13:00
The Devon derby hasn’t produced a goalless draw for nearly 40 years but it’s a sequence that’s begging to be broken in the early kick-off this weekend with both teams operating way below the league average for total goals and the market seemingly oblivious. Take the 9/1 available on no goalscorer and back under 1.5 goals as a cover bet at 13/5.
March 1978 was the last time these two sides played out a 0-0, with the net bulging 109 times in 43 subsequent meetings, an average of 2.53 goals per game. However, this will be the fifth consecutive season in the same division and there’s not much they don’t know about each other now. With only one draw in the last 14 league meetings, another could be overdue.
After seven rounds of this campaign, Exeter reside third from bottom for total expected goals at 2.34 per game, with Plymouth fourth from bottom at 2.35. Only games involving Cheltenham and Mansfield have produced less goalmouth action. Pitching the respective figures against each other, my ratings have this game down for 2.19 goals, 0.21 goals shorter than the market.
Plymouth are top of the table after five straight wins but Derek Adams will be mindful of how fragile confidence was when Argyle lost their first two matches, and also respectful of the fact that Exeter did the double over his team last season. The Grecians’ record is the mirror image (W2 L5), so Paul Tisdale could also take the positives from a stalemate.