Colchester v Crewe - Saturday 15:00

Crewe’s record with and without Alex Kiwomya continues to astound. Excluding Checkatrade Trophy games, it’s now 24 goals in 1,098 minutes when he’s on the pitch and just five goals in 942 minutes when he isn’t. That’s roughly one goal every 45 minutes, compared with one goal every three hours. With his availability assured this weekend, back the away win at 11/4.

The Chelsea loanee missed the 0-0 draw with Barnet last weekend but returned for the 2-1 win over Morecambe in midweek, with Steve Davis saving his legs once the scoring had finished with 20 minutes to play. The trend is no coincidence and it’s not just about his talent, Kiwomya’s pace gives an otherwise pedestrian Alex side a completely different dimension.

Essentially, the Railwaymen are a passive outfit, sitting deep and waiting for their opponents to sign their own death warrant, but they can be lethal when things go according to plan. And the Crewe 2-0 correct score is their hallmark, which is excellent value at 21/1 here. Colchester have conceded at least twice in six of their last seven home matches.

The U’s ended a 13-match winless streak with a shock 3-0 victory at Cheltenham in midweek, which owed much to the ineptitude of their hosts on the night. But with stiffer resistance from Alex they could quickly revert to type. Six of Crewe’s eight away matches have produced exactly two goals, half of them 1-1 draws with two of the other three in their favour.

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Crewe to win - 1pt @ 11/4
Crewe 2-0 correct score - 1pt @ 21/1