Ryder Cup hero Jamie Donaldson is fancied to cash-in on his best chance of the season.
Lake Malaren in Shanghai is the scene once again for the penultimate event on this seasons European Tour. A track which is tricky enough to judge from a betting perspective with both short and long hitters doing well down the years here. The roll call of winners doesn't shed an awful lot of light on proceedings either with Peter Hanson, Gonzalo Castano and Marcel Siem the three winners here in this events infancy. The course will yield tonnes of birdies and those looking a chance of winning will need to look towards 20 under par at least on Sunday evening if any bad weather stays away.
Justin Rose heads the market at a very skinny 6/1 considering the quality of field and despite an excellent year we'll be more than happy to let Rose win unbacked at those odds. Stenson slots in as second jolly and at double the odds of Rose is a much more attractive proposition. He has little course form here though and although I think he could play well and possibly contend, I'm not overly keen to weigh in. The in form Branden Grace tees it up once again in search of a win but after a great start last week he failed to kick on so I won't be prepared to invest anything on quotes less than 20/1.
Our top selection screams off the page as the most value bet in the field in Welshman Jamie Donaldson
. Overall it has been a disappointing year for the Ryder Cup hero with a few niggling injuries upsetting his rhythm throughout the season. His ball striking was nowhere near his best all year but with some recent encouraging signs this may be the time for Jamie to strike. Three top15 finishes in his last four starts is a very welcome tally for someone who has struggled to find his best. Heading to Lake Malaren will certainly get his tail up. He has shot a course record 62 twice here down the years and came up just a shot shy of the winning total here last year. What he has failed to do is put four good rounds together, no more so when he struggled on the final day last year due to some very tough conditions. This represents Jamie's best chance of a win this year so we'll definitely have a pop at 40/1.
Jamie Donaldson - 1pt e/w @ 40/1Lost -2pts
At the same price and worthy of support this week is the Korean Byeong Hun An
. After his win at Wentworth I expected a shade better from him the rest of the season. He hasn't continued in the same fashion as he won there in the Summer. However, a win in Korea a number of weeks ago has given him the boost to post four top 20s in his last six starts. The most impressive of those was in Turkey where he came with a wet sail on the Sunday only to stall towards the end of his round. There is no doubting this lad has returned to form and with a top 20 posted in last weeks WGC he is more than worthy of a bet at 40/1.
Byeong Hun An - 1pt e/w @ 40/1Placed 6.75pts
Finally, with a top 10 posted here at this venue last year and some recent form to note also, Fabrizio Zanotti
is a shade overpriced in the market. Top 5 finishes in Holland Italy were followed by an impressive 2nd placed finish at the British Masters behind an inspired Fitzpatrick. He won the 2014 BMW International Open when it moved from its traditional slot at Eichenried to Larchenhof. I consider that venue not far off this test they will face this week and with very low numbers posted there also there is every chance Zanotti can outplay his quotes of 80/1. There is little else that appeals in the market and the event is somewhat uninviting as a betting prospect. We'll leave it at these three selections.
Fabrizio Zanotti - 0.75pts e/w @ 80/1Lost -1.5pts