One market stood off the page for me at first glance and that was the Top Continental European. A field of ten line up here and with 1/5 odds 3 places available across the board it gives a chance to seek out some each way value. I'm quite keen on the chances of both Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Bernd Wiesberger. Let's start with the Spaniard. His game has risen to a quality standard in this calendar year with only one finish in the last seven outside the top 15. His recent form reads 2-2-36-11-3-4. What is most impressive are his last three outings in the states.
Nobody would have thought Rafa held much of a chance going Stateside but he has proved them all wrong. I have been noting on several occasions this year how his short game has improved dramatically and that is why we are seeing such results. Now comes the big negative.
Debutants have a notoriously bad record here. 'Back the top debutant market' I hear you cry. Well that is quite competitive and I don't fancy going up against quite a few capable players n that field.
Romain Langasque, Langer, Kjeldsen, Dubuisson, Lingmerth and Kaymer are all capable on their day however the large majority of those mentioned will miss the cut. Kaymer hasn't had any success around Augusta whatsoever. I feel Lingmerth's talents are best used around more of a resort type course. Victor Dubuisson is a law onto himself and although he could make the cut I can't see him in the top 20.
It leaves us with Stenson and Garcia. In ten appearances at the Masters Henrik has missed the cut three times and his best finish is 14th. Garcia has tallied more missed cuts than Henrik and although he has three top tens there have been plenty of ordinary efforts. These two lads are playing solid stuff right now and are worthy of their place atop this market but I feel they are both beatable. Either way the each way value on these two lads is tremendous and I'll be very surprised if we don't get at least one placer and a sniff of the win.
I believe the draw bias may even out over the first two days, but those going out early on day one certainly hold all the aces to land the first round lead. Dustin has held the lead after day one in the last three major championships. He failed to go on to collect any of those prizes but he must be one of the more likely ones to fire a low one right off the bat. He has held the lead ten times after round one on the PGA Tour and is the value bet for me at 22/1. We'll be betting this straight as I'm loathed to bet first round lead each-way with the split stake inevitability of the places.
I'll be back on Thursday morning with any 3 ball bets we'll be having on day one.