This tournament isn't the easiest one to predict and has a habit of throwing up maiden victories for those in search. Some of the winners are quite talented though and often it is a quality campaigner who wins here. Rose, Watson, Horschel and Dufner have all won here over the last five years. Jason Day finished 4th here last year and arrives as a strong tournament favourite. I was amazed how short he traded a few weeks back at the Heritage, an event which over 72 holes would surely get the better of him. He has a better chance here and his price reflects that. I can't however invest at those odds despite his record in the last six months. Even if he plays very well there will undoubtedly be umpteen others shooting low scores also as that is the nature of this tournament. The 5/1 on offer is thus rendered little value.
Justin Rose is mighty short also. He won here at 11/1 last year and turns up this time a general 8/1 poke. He is nowhere near the same form of last year and he is easily passed up. Billy Horschel comes here with every chance and it seems a win isn't far away but his price is also very thing so we'll be looking elsewhere for our bets this week.
The world and its dog seems to be piling into Daniel Berger this week and I find it hard not to myself. I often question golfers who get talked up an awful lot without hard evidence of how they play under pressure. Berger has proven so far though that he is a classy operator. Two top 15 finishes and a 2nd at three of the four Fedex Playoff events towards the end of last year showed just how impressive this lad is. What really took me to stand up and notice was his recent top10 finish at Augusta. This was a week where the short game was paramount and those missing few putts from inside 10 feet were all towards the top of the leaderboard. Previous to that he finished at Houston. Four rounds in the 60s here at the Zurich last year and a total of 18 under is enough to show us that Daniel is up to the task of competing well this week and the 25/1 on offer is fair.