Royal Ascot Tips: Andy Holding's Saturday Racing Tips

Sometimes in life, we are all guilty of overcomplicating matters (not putting up The Lir Jet a classic case in point from this writer yesterday) so not wanting to make the same mistakes twice, APLOMB (NAP) (best price 5-1) is the unwavering selection despite his price tightening up close to uncomfortably short proportions.

What you often need in this race is a horse who has the pace to go the gallop over six-furlongs and the ability to stay further – ability to handle the course is a handy tool too - and this four-year-old has all of those attributes in spades. Other than one inexplicably bad run at York – and let’s face it, the Knavesmire can be a law unto itself – the son of Lope De Vega was a model of consistency last season and even though he did manage to score twice, it was his run here behind Tinto which actually works out as his career best on the figures. In what turned out to be an extremely strongly-run race for the grade, William Haggas’ gelding only narrowly went down in a driving finish to the rapidly-improving winner and with his conqueror going on to show the value of the form when scoring at Newmarket on his seasonal debut, the fact that he gets in here only 2lb higher (Tinto now rated 105), points heavily towards him being well treated. Given a nice little sweetener over an eyebrow-raising five-furlongs on ground that wouldn’t have suited at Newmarket recently, any cobwebs should have been well and truly blown away and, with his middle draw set to give Tom Marquand plenty of options as to which horses to track down the favoured middle of the course, only terrible luck in the run can stop Aplomb from not having a say in the final outcome.

PUNCHBOWL FLYER (best price 5-1) caught the eye with the way he finished off his race at Newbury on his return to action and he’s fancied to build on that promising effort over a track which should play more into his strengths. Outpaced and driven along two out at the Berkshire venue, the son of Dream Ahead didn’t look to be going anywhere fast, but he really picked up the bridle inside the final furlong and he flew home to finish a never-nearer runner-up to the more prominently position Broughtons Gold. On the evidence of his first effort for 269 days, the gelding operation in the off season has clearly worked and if his tendency to lug left under pressure can be ironed out in time, he has the potential to become much better than his current rating of 74.

Most Beautiful is potentially the big headline act in this Group 2 for the fillies and having clocked a big time figure on debut (best so far by a filly), there’s no argument with her being at the top of the pile with the layers. Whether she’s got as much in hand as the market suggests, though, is open to debate as of the home contingent, both SACRED (best price 5-1) and HAPPY ROMANCE (best price 12-1) have a couple of smart numbers next to their names too.

The former ran out a resoundingly easy winner of what looked a hot race on paper at Newmarket on her debut, made even more remarkable by her SP of 12-1. Put in at a conservative 3-1 favourite on the overnight tissues, William Haggas’ filly was somehow allowed to go off four times the price and considering the manner in which she brushed aside her rivals, it beggars believe who on earth was trying to lay her. Always travelling well, the daughter of Exceed And Excel quickened on demand at the furlong pole to pull readily clear of the rest and with overall time and final splits stacking up well compared to the colts half an hour later, it rates a strong piece of form. Indeed, there has been three individual winners out the race so far to date and with her yard having hit the crossbar with several of their runners here this week, Sacred has a decent chance of changing the mood at Sommerville Lodge.

The latter has a bit to find with her old rival strictly on their first clash 16 days ago, but her subsequent victory at Sandown suggests she’s come on a ton for that initial outing and she might have a chance of bridging the gap. Unable to get up a head of steam at HQ, Richard Hannon’s filly spent the entire five-furlongs climbing over the back of horses dropping back into her lap, so it’s probably wise not to take her four-length losing margin as red. A big, strapping filly who has the ability to match her frame, the daughter of Dandy Man should turn out to be a big player providing her draw in stall 2 doesn’t cause too much havoc.

A tremendous renewal of the best colt’s juvenile race of the meeting and it brings together so many potentially talented performers it’s hard to know where to look. Admiral Nelson couldn’t have been any more impressive when making a winning debut at the Curragh and he has the physical size and scope to really develop as the season progresses. Qaader caught the eye with the way he opened up in the final two furlongs of his debut success at Newbury eight days ago and he also looks to have a bright future. The only slight downside to the pair is both of their two victories were achieved in pretty slow times and although they could easily be just as effective a stronger run race, being asked to take around 2-1 the pair coupled isn’t the most appealing strategy of all time – especially against several who have already reached greater heights on the numbers.

One of the better speed figures contests for the juvenile colts came at Newmarket’s opening fixture and although Creative Talent ran out a fairly impressive winner, it was the performances of DARK LION (best price 10-1) and SAEIQA (best price 25-1) in behind which really caught the eye.

The former was well-touted beforehand as being one of Roger Varian’s better colts and that was reflected in his incredible strong position in the market, being sent off a warm 2-1 favourite in an 11-strong field. The chances of him justifying his SP, however, diminished dramatically when he was a little slow to find his stride and by the time the field had reached halfway, he still had plenty left on his plate. From that point onward, the son of Dark Angel consistently found trouble in running and like a cat on a hot tin roof, he also looked to be struggling to handle the quick ground, changing leads several times to try and get organised. Once meeting the rising ground, however, he finally showed glimpses of what he all about as he came home strongest of all just in behind the main players. A big, strapping lad who covers plenty of ground, the more galloping nature and wide open expanses of today’s Berkshire venue should suit him better than the bottleneck he ended up running into at HQ and hailing from a yard who have had plenty of success during the week, he’s worth a decent crack at double-figure odds.

The latter also covered himself with glory in the same Newmarket heat 16 days ago and it was wouldn’t come as a huge shock if he took a big step forward either. Similar to the main selection, John Gosden’s colt failed to handle the track as well as some and, as a result, he did well to finish a close-up third. The way he hit the line strongly suggested he’d do better when encountering a stiffer test and even though Frankie Dettori has chosen to ride Existent, the bold strategy is to stay loyal to the same form line and go with a horse whose sire had a distinct preference for plenty of give underfoot (won a Group on soft ground over today’s C&D).

The form of King Ragnar’s third behind Smokey Bear took a huge boost when Lazuli bolted up at Sandown last weekend so he looks a worthy favourite, but there are a couple rivals he might have to worry about in the shape of RIVER NYMPH (best price 7-1) and LION TOWER (best price 6-1) and they make slightly more appeal at the morning odds.

The former has form lines tied in with Smokey Bear for Newbury last season, so he’s on-par with the favourite with regards to the standard of opponent he’s been taking on and he was also up against a potentially well-handicapped horse in the shape of Jovial at Lingfield last time out. Having his first run of the campaign, Clive Cox’s colt ran a perfectly respectable race back in third, but it might well have been a different story had he not met trouble in running at a crucial stage. The way he finished off his race once out in the clear suggested he’s a three-year-old still very much on the up, and with his team in a rich vein of form at present, the son of Cable Bay should give another solid account over a trip that threatens to bring about even more improvement.

The latter will probably need the surface to dry out to be at his best, but either way, he has too much ability to simply cast aside. Progressive on the all-weather during the winter, Mark Johnston’s strapping colt did extremely well to finish as close up as he did at Pontefract on his seasonal/turf debut 10 days ago considering how much ground he forfeited at the start and by having to race out wide and on the evidence of that display, he should be set for a profitable campaign on the grass. A horse with tons of scope and a long stride, today’s test over seven-furlongs should suit and he’s expected leave his current mark of 80 well behind as the season progresses.

RUN WILD (best price 5-1) produced a dazzling display on her season reappearance at Newmarket recently and even though today’s test will require another step forward, she looks in the kind of mood to cope with the big plunge.

Stepped up to 1m2f for the first time, the daughter of Aramon was always moving sweetly at HQ and even from four furlongs down, it was plain for all to see she was still in a lower gear compared to the rest. Eased down close home, she still had three lengths to spare over her toiling rivals and with the time figure backing up the visual aspect of the display, her levels of performance clearly went up by several notches. Interestingly, she’s been rather sportingly given the opportunity to roll the dice here rather than take in easier pickings on the continent and that decision could end up being a fruitful one. The one thing that may scupper her chances is if James Doyle decides to go eyeballs out from the front on John Gosden’s filly, thinking that he has to make it a proper test at the trip. As we’ve seen at this meeting all week and over a long period of time at the Berkshire, trying to make all on the round track is extremely tough, so hopefully he will use his noddle and take a lead, if possible, before trying to make a run for home once in the straight.

There’s little doubt, ONE MASTER’s (best price 9-2) optimum trip is six furlongs, but with the track still likely to be riding on the soft side, the decision to bypass the Queen Anne and come here for her seasonal bow will hopefully turn out to be well rewarded in some way, shape or form.

A valiant third in the big mile curtain raiser to last season’s Royal meeting, William Haggas’ mare ran equally well in defeat in the Prix Maurice De Gheest over a furlong and a half shorter at Deauville later in the campaign, thus confirming her versatility. A victory in the Prix Foret over seven-furlongs set her up nicely for a tilt at the Group 1 Champion Sprint on her final start of the campaign over today’s C&D and although she failed in her bid to justify heavy support that day, she still ran a blinder in chasing home the more prominently ridden Donjuan Triumphant. Obviously, she faces no easy task on her first outing for 245 days over a trip just short of her best, but with her record over the straight track here reading 132, another positive displays looks on the cards despite that slight negative.

Plenty of course regulars in this traditional cavalry charge and one who has his own personal tankard under the bar here at the Berkshire venue is SUMMERGHAND (best price 17-2) and he looks poised to give it another good go over a track that suits his run style.

Fifth in this race last season, David O’Meara’s inmate probably found the fast ground a little lively for him on that occasion and he went on to prove that theory correct when runner-up in the Great St Wilfred behind the rapidly-improved Dakota Gold on much softer ground. A creditable fourth in the big heritage handicap on Champions Day back here in October, the six-year-old showed his durability by running a series of fine races out in the desert this winter. Back on these shores with a fine effort on his return to the fray at Newmarket two weeks ago, his performance that day had to be marked down as a promising effort, and with his stable in form and a decent draw right smack down the middle of the track all positives, the son of Lope De Vega is strongly fancied to have his consistency in these sort races finally rewarded.