We've examined the trends of recent Grand National winners to decipher which horse has the best chance in 2018
Grand National Winner Trends
Age:
27 of the 35 finishers over the last two Grand Nationals were aged under ten, highlighting the changing nature of the race following the modifications.
Stamina:
The last 45 winners had won over at least three miles.
Jumping:
17 of the last 21 winners had fallen or unseated their rider no more than twice.
Previous National Pedigree:
13 of the last 21 winners previously won or placed in a National of any description.
Cheltenham Festival Form:
Only one Cheltenham Festival winner since 1961 has gone on to win the Grand National in the same season.
Recent Form:
Only three of the last 20 winners had won more than once earlier in the season.
The Grey Horse:
Only three grey horses have ever won the Grand National.
The Betting Market:
7 of the last 11 winners started at 25/1+
Jockeys:
Ruby Walsh is the most successful current jockey over the Grand National fences having won twice and placed four times. He’s also completed the National on 10 out of his 13 rides. Should he be fit, Ruby Walsh is expected to ride Total Recall.
Owners and Trainers:
Trevor Hemmings has won three times since 2002 and J P McManus has owned a top-four finisher in 9 of the last 14 years.
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Conclusions
Four horses are out in front fitting the bill for eight of the ten criteria mentioned above. I Just Know (best price 25/1), Alpha Des Obeaux (40/1), Warriors Tale (50/1) and Final Nudge (50/1) all have the majority of the ingredients that have been necessary to win the Grand National in recent years.
Warriors Tale looks the bet out of these as the only aspect he fails is the lack of previous National experience. This is another Hemmings-owned horse in the field and he'll be hoping to win the race for a fourth time in recent years.
Watch our Grand National Panel Preview below, where prolific tipster Andy Holding and Betfair Racing's Harry Phillips talk us through their best bets for the big race on Saturday.
